Macro
[China macro] this week, the central bank released the data of credit and social finance in January. In January, RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion and social finance increased by 6.17 trillion, exceeding market expectations and reaching the highest in the same period in history. The structure shows the characteristics of steady growth, and most of the loans may flow into infrastructure (medium and long-term loans of enterprises and high growth of government bonds); Consumption and real estate demand are still weak (residents' loans are weak, real estate high-frequency data are weak, and trust is weak). The central bank issued the 2021q4 monetary policy report, which continued the "prudent monetary policy should be flexible and appropriate, give full play to the dual functions of the total amount and structure of monetary policy tools, and pay attention to sufficient, accurate and forward force". There is no need to over interpret the "do not flood" again, and the expression of broad credit is more positive, It is required to "vigorously expand loan lending" and maintain the previous judgment. It is expected that the monetary policy will be stable and loose, and the reserve requirement and interest rate may be reduced in the future, and the credit social finance will continue to stabilize and broaden.
[overseas macro] the United States released inflation data in January. CPI increased by 7.5% year-on-year and core CPI increased by 6.0% year-on-year, both exceeding market expectations, mainly due to the significant increase in energy (year-on-year + 27%) and core commodities (new cars + 11.7% year-on-year and used cars + 40.5% year-on-year). It should be noted that at present, the consumption of services in the United States has not returned to the pre epidemic level, and the rapid rise of wages in the United States will drag down the decline rate of inflation in the United States and may continue to exceed the policy objectives of the Federal Reserve. Looking back, the benchmark assumption is expected to raise interest rates three times a year, but if inflation rises higher than expected, interest rates may be raised four to five times a year.
Tactics
In the first week after the Spring Festival holiday, the market appeared obvious differentiation, the "steady growth" chain performed well, and the growth style continued to adjust. Looking forward to the future, with the approval of China Pfizer covid-19 therapeutic drug to boost the confidence of economic recovery, the credit relief is stronger than expected, the monetary policy continues to be loose and cooperate to maintain abundant liquidity. At the same time, the expectation of peripheral fed interest rate hike has been fully reflected in the market, and we can still actively find and grasp the structural market of A-Shares in the future.
