Last week (2.7-2.11), the stock index opened higher, the Shanghai index rose 3.02% to close at 3462.9 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.78% to close at 13224.38 points, the small and medium-sized 100 fell 1.19%, and the gem index fell 5.59%; In terms of industry sectors, architectural decoration, building materials and steel ranked first in terms of growth; In terms of theme concepts, the growth of Lianban index, smart IC card index and mobile payment index ranked first; The average daily turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 912.316 billion; In terms of style, large cap stocks have a comparative advantage, with Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 up 2.91% and China Stock Exchange 500 up 2.50%; In terms of exchange rate, the closing point of US dollar against RMB (CFETS) was 6.3592, down 0.07%; In terms of commodities, icewti crude oil rose 1.74%, Comex gold rose 2.92%, Nanhua iron ore index fell 2.90%, and DCE coking coal rose 3.75%.
Initial release of market risk. There are four main reasons for the decline of the track sector in this round: (1) under the high US inflation, the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates has been significantly accelerated; (2) The trading of A-share track sector is crowded and the valuation is high, which has the internal driving force of valuation return; (3) The downward pressure on China's economy has increased, the expectation of residents' income has decreased, the effect of steady growth policy has not been fully released, and the market risk appetite has declined; (4) The downward movement of track stocks may cause a certain negative feedback effect. The current gem index has fallen 22% since its high on December 15 last year. The positions of some radical private equity funds and public funds are relatively concentrated. Previously, they focused too much on the track sector, and the overall withdrawal range is large. Since the net value of 0.8 yuan is the early warning line of most private equity fund products and 0.7 yuan is the liquidation line of most private equity fund products, some radical private equity funds may have passive clearing pressure.
The market bottom is gradually approaching, and there is no need for excessive panic in the short term. Considering that the adjustment range of the current market index is sufficient, the market risk has been preliminarily released. The gem index has strong support at the position of 2500-2700. In the short term, there is no basis for A-share index to go down sharply. However, it may take some time for market sentiment to recover and new funds to continue to enter. We expect that in the next 1-2 months, the A-share market may continue to maintain a volatile trend, and it is difficult for the index to rise or fall sharply. Under the game of stock funds, the rotation of sectors may be accelerated, and the hot spots and main lines of the market may be switched repeatedly. At the operational level, it is more appropriate to absorb high-quality stocks in the financial, real estate and infrastructure sectors with low and undervalued values and expected performance improvement. They can also properly participate in the sectors with dilemma reversal, such as the sectors with epidemic reversal (aviation / Airport / hotel / Tourism / Cinema) Necessary food (food and beverage) with reversed cost dilemma and pig breeding sector with reversed industrial cycle. In the past, the policy bottom, market bottom and economic bottom of A-Shares usually appeared in turn. In 2022, with the transmission of broad currency to broad credit, the growth rate of social finance is expected to hit the bottom and rebound. It is expected that the stock market will also lag behind the growth rate of social finance for 1-2 months to achieve the bottom and rebound. Therefore, we expect that the bottom of this round of market may appear from March to April, when the market may show a V-shaped trend.
Investment advice. It is estimated that in 2022, China's major asset allocation will move from the "stagflation like" stage (economic downturn + upward inflation) to the "recession" stage of Merrill Lynch clock (economic downturn + lower inflation). The recommended asset allocation order is: bonds > stocks > commodities. It is expected that the A-share market will still achieve positive returns in 2022, but the performance of the index may be lower than that in 2021. We are optimistic about the following four sectors in turn: (1) the sectors with booming production and sales. In the next 1-3 quarters, the performance improvement expectations from strong to weak are: national defense and military industry, household appliances, transportation, communication and computer; (2) New energy and other track stocks. It is expected that the differentiation of new energy track stocks will intensify, the stocks with proven performance will still grow high, and the stocks with false performance will be corrected; (3) Downstream consumption sector. In November, China's PPI rose 12.9% year-on-year and CPI rose 2.3% year-on-year. The scissors gap is at an all-time high. It is expected that the convergence period of this round of ppi-cpi will last from November 2021 to August 2022. The consumer sector will probably achieve excess returns in the first half of next year. We can pay attention to food, beverage and household appliances; (4) Epidemic damaged sector. At present, the epidemic has spread to India, Africa and other places with the weakest vaccination, which may mean that the global anti epidemic process has come to an end. In 2022, with the control of the global epidemic, there is a momentum for valuation and repair in the epidemic damaged sector, which can be paid attention to: aviation, airport, tourism, hotel, cinema, etc.
Risk tip: macroeconomic downturn, recurrence of the epidemic, fluctuations in overseas markets, deterioration of China US relations and risks in emerging market countries.
