Key investment points:
On February 6, we released “continue to tap the” three lows “, which proposed that there may be a short-term or phased rebound after the oversold, but looking forward to February to March, we think we should patiently wait for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates and continue to tap the stable growth chain and travel chain with the characteristics of” three lows “. Since the Spring Festival, the comparative advantages of three low varieties continue to appear.
From 2019 to 2021, it can be found that the growth stocks represented by gem in the first quarter of each year have been adjusted in stages, such as may 2019, March 2020 and March 2021, and each adjustment is just an opportunity for bargain hunting layout in that year. At present, looking forward to 2022, why is the comparative advantage of the “three low” strategy not 1-2 months, but is expected to last for 2-3 quarters?
Different from before: the Fed’s efforts to raise interest rates and stabilize growth
We expect that the comparative advantage of the “three low” allocation strategy is not only 1-2 months, but is expected to last for 2-3 quarters.
On the one hand, compared with 2019 to 2021, the Fed entered the interest rate hike cycle in 2022. With the help of the resumption of trading, it was found that the initial interest rate hike might disturb interest rate sensitive assets such as growth stocks. As the Fed enters the interest rate hike cycle, the overall trend of US bond yield will be different from that from 2019 to 2021. From the perspective of trend correlation in recent years, there is a strong correlation between the growth sector represented by gem and the trend of US bond yield. Further, the performance of the A-share industry in the Fed’s interest rate increase cycle can be found that in the two interest rate increase cycles since 2000, the early cycle varieties such as finance, energy and materials of A-shares have comparative advantages.
On the other hand, compared with 2019-2021, the intensity and time of steady growth in 2022 are expected to increase. The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and the central economic work conference put forward relatively clear requirements for steady growth, reiterated that “economic construction should be the center” and maintain the economic operation within a reasonable range, and required that “policy efforts should be moderately advanced” and “infrastructure investment should be moderately advanced”.
Configuration clues: steady growth, travel chain and high dividend
For the “three low” sectors with undervalued value, low share price and low position, we investigated the marginal changes of fundamentals from top to bottom. We sorted out the allocation clues such as stable growth, travel chain and high dividend. Combined with the industry point of view, the relevant companies are:
Steady growth: Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) , China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) , Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ;
Travel chain: Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , Air China Limited(601111) , China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) , Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) , Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) etc;
High Dividend: Daqin Railway Co.Ltd(601006) , Shandong Hi-Speed Company Limited(600350) , China Merchants Expressway Network Technology Holdings Co.Ltd(001965) , China Mobile, China United Network Communications Limited(600050) etc.
Risk tip: performance growth is lower than expected; Liquidity tightening exceeded expectations.
