A shares turned red in the first trading week after the Spring Festival, and more than half of the main indexes showed an upward trend. The top indexes in the week were dividend index, A-share index, Shanghai stock index, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and other indexes. The indexes with large declines during the week were gem 50, Chuang Chuang growth, Kechuang Chuang entrepreneurship 50 and other indexes.
The top sectors since the beginning of the year are coal, banking, architectural decoration, petroleum, petrochemical and real estate.
This week, the northward capital generally showed a net outflow, and the net purchase amount of foreign capital was 10.444 billion yuan. The top five stocks that foreign investors bought in this week were Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) (3.131 billion yuan), China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) (2.391 billion yuan), Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) (2.235 billion yuan), Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) (1.451 billion yuan) and Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (986 million yuan).
Meso observation: the new infrastructure drives the concept of digital currency stronger
The concept market of digital currency strengthened this week. As of the closing on February 11, the digital currency index (884871. WI) gained 2.18% on that day, 10.97% this week and 7.34% in 30 days. New infrastructure is guided by new development concepts, driven by technological innovation and based on information networks. As an important concept in the field of new infrastructure, digital currency is catalysed by favorable policies.
Summary of annual report forecast: the overall performance of A-Shares is stable, and the pre earnings ratio exceeds 70%
The top five industries in terms of the average upper and lower limits of net profit growth are nonferrous metals (the upper and lower limits of net profit growth are 271.61% ~ 323.62%, the same below), coal (275.22% ~ 307.44%), basic chemical industry (187.71% ~ 237.18%), steel (131.49% ~ 166.65%) and power equipment (70.85% ~ 121.23%). Overall, 184 listed companies that have disclosed their performance exceeded expectations, accounting for 16.23%; 344 were in line with expectations, accounting for 30.34%; 606 were less than expected, accounting for 53.43%.
Macroeconomic data: China’s credit has made a good start and US inflation is high
In January, China’s social financing scale increased by nearly 4 trillion yuan, with a month on month growth rate of 160%, 984.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year; The scale of M2 currency increased by 9.8% year-on-year. Internationally, the CPI of the United States increased by 7.5% year-on-year in January, the highest in 40 years; Core CPI increased by 6% year-on-year.
According to the current prediction of fedwatch tool, the probability of raising interest rates twice at the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting on March 16, 2022 is as high as 94.7%, and the greater probability of raising interest rates in other months is: once in May, once in June, once in July, once in September, once in November and once in December. Finally, by the end of 2022, the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates eight times, raising the probability of the federal interest rate rising to 2% – 2.25% to 26.2%; A total of seven interest rate hikes have raised the probability of the federal interest rate rising to 1.75% – 2% to 33.8%; A total of six interest rate hikes have raised the probability of the federal interest rate rising to 1.5% – 1.75% to 21.6%,
Investment strategy: Recently, the yield of us 10-year Treasury bonds rose to 2%, which fed back that the Fed raised interest rates 7-8 times in 2022, making the long-term interest rate return to more than 2%. The short-term fluctuation of the market needs to wait for the final landing of the interest rate meeting in March. At the same time, the escalation of military confrontation between Ukraine and Russia will also bring continuous shocks to the global equity market. The possibility of A-Shares continuing to fluctuate in the first quarter has greatly increased. In the short term, it is still defensive against conservative sectors such as banking, real estate and building materials, while the medium and long-term layout of new energy, consumer electronics, semiconductors National defense, military industry and other emerging economy tracks planned in the 14th five year plan.
Risk tip: Overseas liquidity risk, China’s monetary policy tightening risk
