Key points of the report:
Market Review
From January 31 to February 11, 2022, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.02%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.78%, and the gem index fell by 5.59%. By industry, the Shenwan light industry manufacturing / textile and garment / commercial trade / food and beverage index rose or fell by + 1.10% / + 2.67% / + 5.23% / + 0.31% respectively, ranking 18 / 16 / 10 / 23 among the 28 Shenwan level industry indexes compared with the CSI 300 index of + 0.28 / + 1.85 / + 4.41 / - 0.52pct respectively.
Weekly topic: crossing the bottleneck of S-shaped curve and opening the second growth curve
The growth process of "birth - growth - maturity - decline" of the company is shown as an S-shaped jump curve. The new growth curve of the company that has not yet occurred and is about to occur is a new engine for the company's sustained and stable growth in the future, namely the "second curve". In recent years, the new consumption trend has put forward higher requirements for consumer goods companies, and enterprises may not survive in the future by relying on only one business. Therefore, building a second curve is the only way for the company to maintain stable growth. The optimal layout time point of the second growth curve is the growth to maturity of the first curve. It needs to promote and develop with the main industry in order to realize complementary advantages and two-way empowerment. Enterprises can create the second curve and explore new growth drivers by means of innovative demand strategy, multi product and multi brand strategy, channel broadening strategy and win-win cooperation strategy:
1) apple: the company started from PC, relying on its excellent R & D ability, constantly pushed through the old and brought forth the new, stimulated demand with innovation and guided consumption with new products, and gradually developed into a high-tech enterprise with the attributes of consumer goods. The four growth curves of "Mac, iPod, iPhone + iPad and airpods" cover different categories. Taking mobile phones as an example, the launch cycle of new Apple mobile phones is about one year, and the products have great iterative innovation ability. Thanks to multiple growth curves, the company's performance maintained stable growth.
2) P & G: the company initially sold soap and candles, actively sought innovation and change in its growth, vigorously explored the field of new products by means of acquisition and R & D, successively cut into new categories such as washing powder, toothpaste, baby paper diapers, sanitary napkins and shampoo, and constantly explored a new second line. Its various products and brands cover the pain point positioning that meets the market demand (for example, the shampoo brand has formed a differentiated positioning of "Piao Rou, haifeisi dandruff removal, Pantene nutrition and Sassoon professional hair care"), and the multi product and multi brand layout helps the company continuously improve its profitability.
3) Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) : after nearly 20 years of development, the company has accurately grasped the opportunity of channel change, prospectively arranged a variety of online and offline channels, formed four growth curves of "CS franchise store, business supermarket, traditional e-commerce and social e-commerce", and stood out in the wave of change in China's cosmetics industry. Under the first mover advantage, the company fully enjoys the dividend of channel reform, and the ceiling of performance growth is further opened.
Risk tips
The risk of macroeconomic growth falling short of expectations; Risk that the production capacity is less than expected; The business condition of the enterprise is lower than the expected risk; Risk of rising raw material prices; Food safety risks; The competition pattern intensifies.
