The stock of social finance continued to rise year-on-year
In January 2022, China's stock of social financing scale increased by 10.5% year-on-year, with the growth rate rising by 0.2% compared with the previous month, and has continued to rise since the fourth quarter of last year. In January, the scale of social financing increased by 6.17 trillion yuan in a single month, a record high. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by about 980 billion yuan. The issuance of RMB loans, corporate bonds and government bonds to the real economy is the key to credit growth in a single month.
RMB loans meet expectations, but enterprises are strong and residents are weak
In January, RMB credit increased by 3980 billion yuan, and the total amount was basically in line with expectations. Among them, credit to enterprises reached a record high; Medium and long-term loans are still growing compared with the strong economic period in January last year, indicating that investment demand is quite supported. Short-term loans of more than 1 trillion will help alleviate the liquidity pressure of the enterprise sector. Although the bill financing is higher than that in the same period last year, it has been significantly improved compared with that in December. Of course, the weakness of residents' short-term, medium and long-term loans may mean that the consumption and real estate markets are still in a downturn in the near future.
Credit recovery or gradually promote economic stabilization and recovery
Judging from the difference between the growth rate of social finance and the nominal growth rate of GDP, the current credit environment is still tight. However, the significantly higher than expected financial data in January showed that the expansion of credit was accelerating. If constrained by the three red lines of real estate and concentration management, the government finance and non real estate entity enterprises may be the main body to absorb social financing funds. This phenomenon is conducive to the stabilization, rebound and growth of investment growth in infrastructure and manufacturing, as well as the gradual stabilization and recovery of the economy.
We believe that the possibility of interest rate reduction will be further reduced when the financial data are significantly higher than expected. Of course, the policy still needs to strive to boost the total demand, including real estate, and alleviate the risks of real estate enterprises. We continue to hold a relatively optimistic judgment on the equity market, but take a cautious view of interest rate bonds.
Risk tips
The economy is less than expected, the policy is less than expected, and the epidemic situation is repeated
