Focus this week:
On February 11, 2022, the people's Bank of China issued the monetary policy implementation report for the fourth quarter of 2021.
Core view:
The judgment on the economic situation and policy tone in the fourth quarter goods policy report basically continues the expression of the central economic work conference and the press conference on financial statistics in 2021. The performance of financing data is the main concern index of current monetary policy.
Looking ahead, if the follow-up credit shows signs of weakness, or there is pressure on the credit supply of commercial banks, it can not be ruled out that the people's Bank of China will still cut interest rates. At the same time, the net financing amount of government bonds this year may be as high as 7.56 trillion yuan. Considering that the overall issuance rhythm may be ahead, it will have a certain impact on the liquidity of the inter-bank market. In order to cooperate with the issuance of government bonds and create a relatively loose financing environment, the people's Bank of China is expected to reduce the reserve requirement again in time to maintain the stability of inter-bank liquidity.
Overseas observation:
The yield of us 10-year Treasury bonds fell and inflation expectations rose; The term spread of us 10-year and 2-year treasury bonds fell. The assets of the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank increased.
Overseas epidemic situation and policy:
In Europe, since February, the epidemic control measures in Britain, France and Germany have been gradually relaxed. As of February 12, the daily confirmed cases in Britain, France and Germany were 75000, 146000 and 190000 respectively; In the United States, the epidemic situation has eased, with 190000 new confirmed cases on Sunday. Russian and British defense ministers met in Moscow; The CPI of the United States increased by 7.5% year-on-year in January 2022, reaching a new high in recent 40 years; British Prime Minister Johnson plans to lift England's epidemic prevention restrictions ahead of schedule.
Global assets:
Global stock markets were divided, with the NASDAQ down 2.18% and the S & P 500 down 1.82%. European stock markets generally rose, while Asian stock markets tended to diverge.
China Watch:
Upstream: the price of crude oil rose month on month, the average price of power coal and coking coal rose month on month, and the price of copper and aluminum rose month on month. Midstream: the operating rate of blast furnace fell month on month, the cement price index fell month on month, the price of rebar increased month on month, and the inventory decreased year on year. Downstream: the decline of commercial housing transaction area has expanded, and the trend of pig price, vegetable price and fruit price has differentiated. Liquidity: the yield of ten-year Treasury bonds rose compared with the end of last month.
China Policy:
The central bank issued a heavy report to set the tone of monetary policy in the next stage; The central bank issued a document to regulate the bond lending business in the inter-bank bond market; The people's Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a notice specifying that the loans related to affordable rental housing projects are not included in the concentration management of real estate loans.
Next week's financial calendar: Monthly PPI rate of the United States and quarterly GDP rate of Japan (Tuesday); Japan's national CPI monthly rate (Friday)
Risk warning: the implementation of the policy is less than expected; Covid-19 pneumonia spread on a large scale; The promotion of major projects across the country was less than expected.
