Real economy: this week, the epidemic spread in some parts of China, the operating rate was in a seasonal downturn, the inventory of industrial products was accumulated, the high-frequency demand index recovered after the Spring Festival, and most of the black futures rose. 1) From Monday to Friday (February 7 to February 11), 243 newly confirmed cases were added in Guangxi, Liaoning, Jilin, Tianjin and Guizhou, which was smaller than the 105 newly confirmed cases in six provinces and autonomous regions and local areas in the same period last week, but the number of cases increased. 2) The operating rate is in a seasonal downturn. Among them, the operating rate of Tangshan blast furnace fell 6.3 percentage points month on month this week to a low in recent years. In addition to the Spring Festival effect, a large number of blast furnace maintenance and output reduction in Tangshan during the Winter Olympic Games also had an impact; The operating rate of coking enterprises decreased by 2.9 percentage points compared with last week; The operating rate of petroleum asphalt plant decreased by 4.6 percentage points compared with the week before the festival. Among the main indicators we tracked, only the operating rate of automobile tires and semi steel tires rebounded month on month. 3) Accumulation of industrial products. Accumulation of industrial products. Among the finished products, the rebar factory warehouse + social warehouse this week increased by 56.7% compared with the week before the festival, and the electrolytic aluminum inventory increased by 7.1% month on month. Among the raw material inventories, the port iron ore inventory increased by 1.0% month on month, and the coking coal inventory of independent coking plant can be used for 17.5 days, down 1.1 days from last week. 4) After the Spring Festival, the high-frequency demand index has recovered. The average daily sales area of commercial houses in 30 cities rebounded after the festival this week. Under the influence of the Spring Festival, the land supply and transaction area fell last week. This week, the average daily subway passenger volume in nine major cities and the congestion delay index in four first tier cities rebounded month on month. In late January, the container throughput of domestic trade and foreign trade of the eight hub ports were - 5% and 2.9% respectively year-on-year, both down from the previous value. 5) Black futures mostly rose. This week, thermal coal, coking coal, iron ore and rebar futures rose 8.8%, 3.1%, 3.6% and 1.6% respectively, while the corresponding spot prices fell 7.0%, 1.3%, 2.9% and 4.5% respectively. The expectation of steady growth is heating up again, driving the price of black goods to be stronger than that of spot goods. The Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale price 200 index fell 2.5% month on month this week. Among them, the national wholesale price of pork fell 5.1% month on month this week; The wholesale price of vegetables fell 5.6% month on month; The wholesale price of fruits rose by 1.0% month on month; The wholesale price of eggs fell 5.7% month on month.
Capital market: this week, China's capital market was mainly affected by the two main lines of financial data in January and the expected tightening and acceleration of the Federal Reserve in overseas markets. The overall financial growth of the stock market was stronger than that of the small market, the interest rate of the bond market accelerated upward, and the RMB exchange rate was still relatively strong under the strength of the US dollar index. In terms of money market, funds were loose after the Spring Festival. Dr007 and R007 closed 2.01% and 1.98% respectively on Friday, down 30.7bp and 32.6bp respectively compared with last Friday; The issuing rate of one-year interbank certificates of deposit of joint-stock banks closed at 2.48%, down 1.0bp from last Friday. In the stock market, under the influence of external market fluctuations, the risk appetite of the stock market is still low. Driven by China's stable growth expectation, the performance of the large-scale financial sector is stronger than that of the small-scale growth this week. In the bond market, this week's financial data, credit and social finance "made a good start" more than expected, pushing up the yield of medium and long-term treasury bonds and widening the 10-1y interest rate spread. In the foreign exchange market, the market's expectations for the tightening of the Federal Reserve have intensified, the US bond yield has risen rapidly, and the US dollar index has strengthened. The US dollar index closed at 96.03 on Friday, up 0.59% from last Friday. This week, the onshore and offshore RMB appreciated by 0.07% and depreciated by 0.09% against the US dollar respectively, which is still strong against the background of the strength of the US dollar index.
Risk tip: steady growth is less than expected, China's epidemic spreads at multiple points, and geopolitical conflicts escalate.
