One week scan:
Epidemic situation: the global epidemic situation continues to decline, and European countries continue to relax prevention and control. In the last week, about 17.71 million and 72000 new confirmed cases and deaths of covid-19 pneumonia were recorded worldwide. Compared with the previous week, the new confirmed cases decreased by 18.8% and the new deaths increased by 2.3%. The total amount of global vaccination continued to rise this week, up 18.8% from last week. About 1.17 billion doses of booster injections have been inoculated globally, up 17.26% from last week. The global booster vaccination rate was 14.8%, up 2.8% from last week. Among them, Europe and the United States have increased needle vaccination, accounting for 25.41% of the world, down 3.7% from last week. European countries have successively relaxed prevention and control. The British government announced that from February 11, passengers from 16 countries will only need to fill in the passenger location form as long as they have completed the vaccination recognized by the British government. German Bavaria governor Zeder said that the state will suspend the mandatory vaccination of covid-19 vaccine for medical staff and other relevant professional groups. Denmark officially lifted the epidemic prevention pass mechanism that has been in use since November 2021.
Overseas: the number of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve is still unclear, and the European central bank pays close attention to inflation. The interest rate hike in March may be a foregone conclusion, and the number of interest rate hikes is still in suspense. In the face of the significantly improved non farm employment index and the highest inflation index in nearly four decades, it seems that it is a foregone conclusion to raise interest rates in March. Recently, Fed officials expressed different views on the range of interest rate hike. Except that Brad supports a single interest rate hike of 50bp, most members believe that a single interest rate hike of 25bp is appropriate. European Central Bank President Lagarde said that since inflation will fall and may stabilize at about 2%, the eurozone does not need to tighten monetary policy significantly. European Commission President von delaine said that he was negotiating with countries such as the United States and Norway to increase natural gas supply to Europe to ensure more sources of natural gas supply. The CPI of the United States reached a new high, and most industries rose year-on-year. According to the data released by the US Department of labor, the US CPI in January increased by 7.5% year-on-year, a new high since March 1982. In February, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index continued to drop to 61.7 from the previous value of 67.2, the lowest since October 2011. The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits for the first time this week was 223000, 16000 lower than the previous value, the third consecutive week of decline and the lowest since the end of December last year.
Prices: Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale prices fell and international oil prices rose. This week, the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale price index of the Ministry of agriculture fell month on month, and the average prices of 28 key monitored vegetables and 7 key monitored fruits both rose. The average price of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil rebounded this week, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) weekly average price of coal decreased compared with the week before the festival, and steel price increased.
Liquidity: the capital interest rate is divided, and the US dollar index falls. The interest rate of short-end funds was differentiated this week. Compared with the week before the festival, the weekly average of dr001 increased by 17.9bp month on month, and the weekly average of dr007 decreased by 11.8bp month on month; The weekly average of 3-month Shibor interest rate and 3-month certificate of deposit issuance interest rate decreased month on month. The interest rate of bills fell, and the weekly average of 1-month, 6-month and 1-year rediscount interest rate of state-owned shares and silver bills fell. This week, the central bank carried out 100 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, and 900 billion yuan reverse repurchase expired; Next week, the central bank’s open market operation will have 300 billion yuan of reverse repo due and 200 billion yuan of MLF due. The US dollar index fell this week and the trend of RMB was stable.
Performance of major categories of assets: the gem fell significantly and the yield of government bonds rose. In the first trading week of the year of the tiger, A-Shares showed a differentiation trend, with the Shanghai stock index and China Securities 500 leading the rise, the gem index fell sharply, and the main indexes of US stocks fell. Shares in China’s oil and construction industries rose in the first three weeks of this week. Compared with the week before the festival, the weekly average yield of 10-year Treasury bonds rose by 3.7bp this week, and the weekly average yield of 10-year CDB bonds rose by 3.1bp.
Risk tip: policy changes, economic recovery is less than expected.
