Event: China’s new social financing scale in January was 6.17 trillion yuan, which is expected to be 5.45 trillion yuan, compared with the previous value of 2.37 trillion yuan. In January, RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion yuan, which is expected to be 3.77 trillion yuan, compared with the previous value of 1.13 trillion yuan. M2 increased by 9.8% year-on-year, expected to be 9.4%, and the previous value was 9.0%.
The scale of social finance reached a record high, and the year-on-year growth rate continued to rise. In January, new social finance recorded 6.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 984.2 billion yuan year-on-year. The data significantly exceeded market expectations and reached a record high at the same time. At the end of January, the stock of social finance recorded 320.05 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.2 percentage points to 10.5% over the previous month. It has rebounded for three consecutive months, the highest since August 2021. Among them, RMB loans to the real economy increased by 4.2 trillion yuan in January, a monthly statistical high, an increase of 380.6 billion yuan year-on-year, supporting social finance. Under the background of financial front force, the issuance of government bonds was accelerated. In January, the financing of government bonds was 602.6 billion yuan, an increase of 358.9 billion yuan year-on-year, and an increase of 564.8 billion yuan month on month due to the high base in December. Corporate bond financing picked up in January, recording 579.9 billion yuan, an increase of 188.2 billion yuan year-on-year and 363.2 billion yuan month on month, exceeding 500 billion yuan for the first time since April 2020. In January, domestic stock financing of non-financial enterprises was 143.9 billion yuan, an increase of 44.8 billion yuan year-on-year. On the whole, on balance sheet loans, government bonds and direct financing contributed greatly to the increase of social finance in January.
The new RMB loans were higher than expected, and the willingness of enterprises to lend was warmer. New RMB loans in January recorded 3.98 trillion yuan, higher than expected and a monthly statistical high, an increase of 394.4 billion yuan year-on-year. In terms of structure, household loans increased by 843 billion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 100.6 billion yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 742.4 billion yuan, short-term loans and medium and long-term loans increased by 227.2 billion yuan and 202.4 billion yuan respectively year-on-year. High base effect, weak consumer consumption and real estate sales are the main reasons for the year-on-year decrease in short-term loans and medium and long-term loans; On the enterprise side, loans from enterprises (Institutions) increased by 3.36 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 1.01 trillion yuan, an increase of 434.5 billion yuan year-on-year, or related to the strong demand for short-term capital turnover of enterprises; Medium and long-term loans increased by 2.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 60 billion yuan year-on-year, ending the negative year-on-year growth for six consecutive months, and the willingness of enterprises to lend recovered. In addition, corporate bill financing increased by 178.8 billion yuan and loans from non banking financial institutions decreased by 141.7 billion yuan. On the whole, the effect of China’s steady growth policy has gradually appeared, the supply bottleneck, raw material and logistics cost pressure, power supply tension and other factors have been alleviated, enterprises are optimistic about the economic prospect, and the financing demand has stabilized and rebounded.
The year-on-year growth rate of M2 remained strong, and the year-on-year growth rate of M1 fell. Excluding the influence of the wrong timing of the Spring Festival, M1 at the end of January increased by about 2% year-on-year, down by about 1.5 percentage points from the previous value, or it is related to the transfer of unit demand deposits to individual deposits caused by the centralized payment of wages and benefits by enterprises before the spring Festival; At the end of January, M2 increased by 9.8% year-on-year, higher than the expected value, the highest since March 2021, and the year-on-year growth rate was 0.8 percentage points higher than the previous value. The pace of fiscal expenditure accelerated, and the superimposed credit data continued to improve, supporting the continuous upward year-on-year growth of M2.
In January, the overall credit data increased steadily, and the growth rate of social finance is expected to continue to expand. On the whole, China’s credit data began to stabilize and rebound in January, the scale of social financing and new RMB loans reached a record high, and the growth rate of broad money M2 also exceeded market expectations, indicating that the steady growth policy is working and that China’s new round of wide credit cycle is starting. January is usually the big month of credit supply, with steady credit supply and accelerated government expenditure. Due to the sufficient credit line of financial institutions at the beginning of the year, financial institutions will increase credit supply in the first quarter based on the principle of “early supply and early return”. In addition, the central bank has continuously strengthened countercyclical regulation by reducing reserve requirements and interest rates, The support of financial institutions to the real economy has been enhanced. With the release of financial data, loose expectations are gradually being fulfilled, and market differences and doubts may gradually subside. Structurally, the entity’s endogenous financing demand is still weak, and the financing structure remains to be improved. With the continuous introduction of the follow-up stable credit policy, we expect the credit environment to continue to improve in the later stage.
Risk warning: repeated overseas epidemics and less than expected policy implementation.
