Yesterday, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) fell by more than 8% in the intraday trading and has fallen by 12.57% this week. Compared with the sharp adjustment of Mao index after the Spring Festival in 2021, it seems that overvalued conglomerates have stepped into the same river again. After the catalyst of the rising logic wavered, the overvalued conglomerates faced the dilemma of killing more, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) may not have a bottom in the short term.
Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) vs Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) : the wind vane of market sentiment. Previously, the market had more consistent views on the market in the first quarter. With the introduction of the steady growth policy, the stock market will stabilize and recover. However, from the market reaction, the short-term has been dominated by sentiment, especially the continuous decline of high valuation conglomerated stocks, which has a significant impact on market confidence. The core reason lies in the microstructure of the market. The popular track is already highly crowded. Under the negative feedback of killing more, the market sentiment is in panic. How much will Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) fall in the future?
We choose Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) as the reference sample of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) because they have the following in common; There is still no problem of the strongest growth rate and the performance of the most popular and leading investors. Based on the above common points, we believe that the future rise and fall of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) from the perspective of short-term market sentiment can refer to the stock price trend of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) in 2021. Through fitting, we judge that the adjustment of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) may not be over, and there may still be 20% room for decline in the future.
The above conclusions are based on the perspective of short-term market sentiment and microstructure. However, in the long run, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) is different from Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) in the industry, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) is in the consumer industry and can rely on the brand to obtain the long-term moat, while Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) is in the new energy industry with high growth and technological change, which has more opportunities, greater risks and more unstable moat. The long-term trend may depend on the fundamental changes of the company and the industry.
Risk tip: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) performance growth exceeded expectations
