Event: on February 10, 2022, the people's Bank of China released monetary and financial data for January. Social finance increased by 6.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 984.2 billion yuan year-on-year, the former value was 2.37 trillion yuan, the year-on-year growth rate of stock was 10.5%, and the former value was 10.3%; RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.39 trillion yuan year-on-year, compared with the previous value of 1.13 trillion yuan; The year-on-year growth rate of M2 was 9.8%, and the previous value was 9.0%.
Core view:
Credit has made a good start, significantly exceeding market expectations. Looking ahead, credit and government bond financing are expected to continue to push up the year-on-year growth of social financing stock, and the market's expectation of a relatively sluggish economic outlook in the early stage is expected to be reversed. However, the good start of credit is only the starting point of wide credit. Under the background that the medium and long-term financing demand is still relatively low, we expect that the fiscal policy will be more active, the landing rhythm of major projects around the country will be accelerated, and infrastructure investment is expected to continue to boost the demand for supporting financing.
Social Finance: credit and bond financing help social finance exceed expectations
The new social finance in January was 6.17 trillion yuan, significantly higher than the market expectation (wind unanimously expected 5.45 trillion yuan). RMB loans and direct financing such as government bonds and corporate bonds were the main driving factors for the new social finance in January, and other sub items were basically in line with the seasonal performance.
Structurally, compared with the same period in 2021, on balance sheet financing increased by 375.1 billion yuan, off balance sheet financing increased by 32.8 billion yuan and direct financing increased by 591.9 billion yuan in January. Among them, the new RMB loans under the scope of social finance increased by 381.8 billion yuan year-on-year, the net financing of government bonds increased by 358.9 billion yuan year-on-year, and the net financing of corporate bonds increased by 188.2 billion yuan year-on-year, which was the main driving item for the new social finance in January.
Looking ahead, the growth rate of social finance is expected to continue the upward trend. First, the people's Bank of China has released a strong willingness to stabilize credit and broaden credit through the reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates. At present, the policy effects such as interest rate reduction are more reflected in the credit supply side. With the downward transmission of the entity's comprehensive financing cost to the demand side, the new credit is expected to reverse the downturn. Second, as the newly increased amount of special bonds in 2022 has been issued in advance in December 2021, it is expected that the overall rhythm of government bond issuance in 2022 will be ahead, and the promotion effect of government bond issuance dislocation on new social finance is expected to continue until the beginning of the second quarter of 2022.
Credit: the credit structure is still poor, and the financing demand still needs to be improved
In January, the total amount of new credit performed strongly, but the structure is still poor, and the medium and long-term financing demand still needs to be improved. In terms of total amount, the performance of new credit is stronger than that in the same period of previous years. In January, the new credit was 3.98 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.39 trillion yuan compared with the same period in 2021 and 0.64 trillion yuan compared with the same period in 2020. Structurally, short-term corporate loans increased by 434.5 billion yuan year-on-year, bill financing increased by 319.3 billion yuan year-on-year, which is still the main support of new credit. Long-term corporate loans increased by only 60 billion yuan year-on-year, and long-term private loans increased by 202.4 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating that the demand for medium and long-term financing still needs to be improved.
Risk tip: the implementation of the policy was not as expected, the local epidemic of covid-19 pneumonia spread on a large scale, and the promotion of major projects around the country was not as expected
