Event overview:
On February 10, the central bank released the financial data of January 2022. In January, M2 increased by 9.8% year-on-year, 0.8pct higher than the previous month and 0.4pct higher than the same period last year; The scale of social financing increased by 6.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 984.2 billion yuan over the same period last year; The stock of social finance increased by 10.5% year-on-year and 0.2pct month on month.
Analysis and judgment: there is still no clue of active credit easing
In January, both new social finance and new credit significantly exceeded the previous general expectations of the market (the consensus expectation of wind is 5.44 trillion yuan of new social finance and 3.76 trillion yuan of new RMB loans). At the same time, 4.2 trillion yuan of new RMB loans (invested in entities) also hit a record high in a single month. From the perspective of total amount, social finance increased by 984.2 billion yuan year-on-year, and new credit increased by 381.8 billion yuan year-on-year. It seems that wide credit is faster than expected. On the one hand, this is the embodiment of the effect of the previous broad monetary policy of reducing reserve requirements and interest rates, and on the other hand, it is also in line with the direction of the forward force of the policy. However, from the perspective of structure, there are still many details worth paying attention to in this social finance data.
On the one hand, under the background of accelerating the issuance of local bonds approved in advance, the net financing scale of government bonds under the social finance caliber in January reached 602.6 billion yuan, an increase of 358.9 billion yuan over the same period last year, contributing 36% of the increase scale of social finance. This part is the embodiment of policy counter cyclical regulation, which is not equivalent to the repair of the credit cycle itself.
On the other hand, the structure of credit is not ideal.
① in terms of term, new short-term loans and bill financing reached 1.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 526.6 billion yuan year-on-year, of which bill financing alone increased by 319.3 billion yuan, while medium and long-term loans decreased by 142.4 billion yuan year-on-year. In other words, behind the higher than expected growth of credit in January, short-term bills and short-term loans still made the main contribution, and the financing willingness of the real economy has not been effectively repaired. ② From the perspective of residents, the medium and long-term loans of new residents increased by 202.4 billion yuan year-on-year under the background of marginal relaxation of mortgage loan policy, reflecting that residents' willingness to buy houses is still weak.
③ from the enterprise side, although the new enterprise (institution) loans increased by 810 billion yuan year-on-year, 434.5 billion yuan came from short-term loans, about 315.5 billion yuan came from bill financing, and only 60 billion yuan came from medium and long-term loans reflecting the real investment intention of the enterprise.
In addition, from the perspective of currency, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 in January was 9.8%, with a marginal increase of 0.8pct, while the year-on-year growth rate of M1 was only - 1.9%. Even excluding the impact of the wrong timing of the Spring Festival (before the Spring Festival, due to the centralized payment of salaries and benefits by enterprises, the demand deposits of units will be transferred to personal deposits) on the growth rate of M1, the year-on-year growth rate of M1 also fell by about 1.5pct in January. M2 growth rate increased + M1 growth rate decreased, indicating that the new financing has not been effectively transformed into demand deposits to be used for investment, and the activation degree of funds is further declining.
Based on the above analysis, we can draw a general conclusion - at present, the super expected social finance and credit are more passive wide credit driven by policy, while the active wide credit spontaneously leveraged by the economy is still unknown.
Investment suggestion: the interest rate may face periodic adjustment pressure
Although the quality of January wide credit may be unsatisfactory in terms of social finance data itself, for interest rate bond investors, only a weak credit structure is not enough to be a reason to continue to be long. What will be in front of investors will be a smaller and smaller game space and a narrower and narrower time window.
First, behind the higher than expected total amount is the firm determination of the policy to stabilize growth. Although at present, it is more policy driven passive credit relief, the continuous increase of policy strength will accelerate the process from passive credit relief to active credit relief. Whether the recent acceleration of major infrastructure projects around the country, or the possibility that the pre-sale funds mentioned in yesterday's article of the 21st Century Business Herald may usher in unified national regulations, are undoubtedly further helping to repair the credit cycle.
Second, February is a data vacuum period, and the impact of investor sentiment and expectations on the market trend will be amplified in stages. Under the condition that the total amount exceeds the expectation and the superposition policy continues to increase, it is expected that before the financial data of February are disclosed in mid and early March, the broad credit expectation will continue to be discussed and fermented by the market, so as to drive the adjustment of interest rates.
Third, the US CPI rose 7.5% year-on-year in January, the highest level since March 1982, which was further confirmed by us inflationary pressure. In this context, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate hike will be further amplified, and the yield of 10Y US bonds will also rise rapidly and break through 2% after the disclosure of inflation data. As the Fed's interest rate hike approaches, the time window for China's monetary policy adjustment will be narrower and narrower.
Therefore, we judge that in February, when there is a data vacuum, the broad credit expectation and the Fed's interest rate increase expectation will become the main line of the interest rate bond market, repeatedly pull the market sentiment, the interest rate may face the pressure of periodic adjustment, and the cost performance of long and medium-term interest rates is still not high.
Risk tips
Credit risk increased.
