Core view
1. With the release of the annual economic data in 2021 and the holding of the two local sessions in 2022, the market has reached a consensus on the main logic of steady growth, but what is the strength of steady growth? As the starting point of countercyclical regulation, the market has good expectations for infrastructure at the beginning of the year, and the infrastructure index has a good start after the year, but whether the infrastructure investment is strong and to what extent? From January to February at the beginning of the year, there is a blank window for economic data. In addition to the newly released social finance, we will try to track the current infrastructure development through high-frequency data.
2. From the perspective of the government's will, the steady growth of infrastructure has been mentioned many times since December. From the perspective of the government's will, the urgency of infrastructure underpinning is self-evident. Recently, many places have intensively announced the planned investment amount of major projects, which shows that the government's will has a high demand for the steady growth of infrastructure. From the perspective of capital, whether it is the proportion of general public financial expenditure invested in infrastructure, the scale and structure of special bonds, superimposed on the financial data in January, the expansion of infrastructure financing demand is further confirmed. Generally speaking, there is no lack of capital for infrastructure expansion in 2022. Finally, from the perspective of the project, the newly signed contract amount in the construction industry is obviously large. Since December last year, the construction intensity represented by the operating hours of Komatsu excavator has also shown signs of improvement, which has driven the rise of industrial product prices in infrastructure related sectors. In short, considering the government's will, funds and projects, the probability of substantial large-scale infrastructure in the first quarter is increasing.
Risk tip: the tightening of the Federal Reserve accelerated faster than expected; Broad credit strength does not double expectations
