Events
At the end of January 2022, the balance of broad money (M2) was 243.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%; The balance of narrow money (M1) was 61.39 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%; The balance of RMB loans was 196.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.5% year-on-year; The stock of social financing scale was 320.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%; In January, the increment of social financing scale was 6.17 trillion yuan, 984.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year.
Main points
In January, social finance achieved a "good start". In January 2022, the growth rate of M2 was 9.8%, reaching the top area since 2017 (except 2020), and the bottom of M2 growth circle was formed; The scale of social financing reached 6.17 trillion yuan, 982.8 billion yuan and 1.12 trillion yuan higher than that in 2020 and 2021 respectively. In terms of total amount, the scale and growth rate of social finance in January exceeded expectations. After the year-end, the performance of corporate bonds and non corporate bonds decreased significantly, and the performance of non corporate bonds and special bonds decreased significantly.
Multiple forces promoted the recovery of social finance in January. First, the decline of financing interest rate should be the main reason to promote the improvement of social finance. Second, to avoid credit collapse, the central bank strengthened mobilization at the policy level. Third, the improvement of social finance data in January also has seasonal reasons. Fourth, under the tone of counter cyclical regulation, the force or correction effect of main financing fields gradually appears.
M2-m1 reached the historical high area. The sharp decline of M1 growth rate is related to the marginal decline of enterprise profit growth rate on the one hand. The marginal decline in the growth rate of corporate profits led to the decline in the growth rate of corporate demand deposits. In fact, the growth rate of enterprise demand deposits has continued to decline since August 2021. Second, it is related to the investment demand of enterprises. From the perspective of enterprise investment ability, as the leading indicator of investment, the decline of enterprise profit growth restricts the investment intention of enterprises to a certain extent.
Behind the exceeding expectation of social finance, we need to pay attention to the strength of economic endogenous power repair and demand policy. In January, social finance exceeded expectations and will further support the economic bottom. From the perspective of the leading role of social finance data in the economy, it is possible to see a significant recovery in the economy as early as the second quarter. However, our view is that this round of economic start-up may be "twists and turns", and we should continue to pay attention to the sustainability and depth of the aggregate demand policy. More importantly, the policy synergy needs to be in a favorable environment of the economic cycle. First of all, as a key variable of endogenous economic power, price still faces more uncertainty. Although the US and European commodity prices have not recovered from the absolute high level since December, it is bound to continue the long-term recovery of energy prices, which is not conducive to the recovery of energy prices in the US and Europe. Secondly, under the constraints of the high weight demand field, the sustainability of wide credit remains to be observed, especially the decline of household loan growth and the rise of deposit growth deserve attention, and the policy demand for infrastructure, real estate investment and consumption in the future is still large. Based on the above cognition, we will probably see a more deterministic aggregate demand policy layout in the next step, and there should be more easing in the volume and price of monetary policy.
