Social finance and credit is one of the most concerned macro topics in the capital market since the beginning of the year. Its significance is reflected in at least three levels: the prerequisite for steady economic growth, the beacon in the vacuum period at the beginning of the year, and an important source of market incremental funds.
In terms of results, the data in January should be said to be better than expected - strong aggregate and improved structure; However, when examining the implementation process of data, we should recognize the twists and turns of the path - market investors have voted with their feet. After making a "good start", the establishment of the trend of wide credit still has a long way to go, which requires the policy layout of multiple departments in key areas to further form a joint force.
Specifically: looking at the total amount, it is obviously better than the market expectation; Looking at the structure, the credit quality has improved; Looking at the flow direction, infrastructure, inclusive finance, manufacturing and green loans may be the main forces; Looking to the future, the path of broad credit is still tortuous. It is optimistic that this round of credit expansion will continue until the middle of the year.
Risk tip: the relaxation of real estate policy is less than expected; The persistence of broad credit is lower than expected; Monetary policy tightening of overseas central banks exceeded expectations
