Event:
In January 2022, the CPI of the United States increased by 7.5% year-on-year, the previous value was 7%, and the market expectation was 7.2%; After the quarterly adjustment, CPI increased by 0.6% month on month, the previous value was 0.6%, and the market expected 0.4%.
Core CPI increased by 6% year-on-year, with the previous value of 5.5% and the market expectation of 5.9%; After the quarterly adjustment, the core CPI increased by 0.6% month on month, the previous value was 0.6%, and the market expected 0.4%.
As of the closing on February 10, the yield of 10-year US bonds rose 6BP to 2.05%, and the stock index fell across the board. The S & P 500 index fell 1.81%, the NASDAQ index fell 2.10% and the Dow Jones industrial index fell 1.47%.
Core view:
The CPI of the United States in January exceeded expectations year-on-year and month on month, and the categories of price increases were wide. Food, energy, rent, new and used cars, electricity and air ticket prices are the main contributions.
The probability of supply chain problems in the United States continued in the first half of 2022, but there has been a marginal trend of improvement, superimposed with the decline in demand. It is expected that the pressure on prices caused by supply chain tightening will be relieved in the second half of the year.
Looking ahead, inflation lacks the momentum to continue to rise sharply, and the CPI is expected to peak in the second quarter at the latest. In view of the higher than expected inflation and non farm data in January, the Federal Reserve is expected to start raising interest rates in March to curb inflation. In addition, in order to meet the political demands of the Biden administration, balance the relationship between controlling inflation and repairing the economy, it is expected that the pace of interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve will gradually slow down in the second half of the year.
Inflationary pressure increased, and CPI exceeded expectations year-on-year and month on month. The CPI of the United States in January 2022 exceeded market expectations year-on-year and month on month. At this stage, there are a wide range of categories of price increases. Food, energy, house rent, new and used cars, electricity and air ticket prices are the main contributions to this inflation. Looking ahead, inflation lacks the momentum to continue to rise sharply, and CPI is expected to peak in the second quarter.
Supply chain problems will continue in the first half of 2022. From the perspective of manufacturing, logistics and transportation, and labor, the supply chain problems in the United States have shown a marginal trend of improvement, superimposed with the decline in demand. It is expected that the pressure on commodity prices caused by the tightening of the supply chain will be relieved in the second half of the year.
The Fed's interest rate hike is ahead of schedule. Inflation and non farm data in January exceeded expectations. We expect that the Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates in March in accordance with the policy signal released by the interest rate meeting at the end of January, so as to curb inflation. However, considering Biden's political demands, balancing the relationship between controlling inflation and repairing the economy, it is expected that the pace of interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve will gradually slow down in the second half of the year.
Risk warning: the change of global inflation is higher than expected; Changes in the epidemic exceeded expectations, resulting in a rapid economic downturn.
