Strategic view
In terms of short cycle, wait for the market to enter the bottom grinding stage. At present, it is cautiously optimistic. Looking forward to the future, the "mixed" of liquidity indicators indicates that asset prices will still fluctuate greatly. Grasp the spring offensive from two dimensions. The first dimension is the landing and overweight of specific steady growth policies to hedge the pessimistic expectation of upward pressure on the economy. The economic work conference held in December 2021 made it clear that China's economic development is facing the triple pressure of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectation. In 2022, economic work should be stable and strive for progress while maintaining stability, and an active fiscal policy should be implemented. The market is waiting for the implementation of the steady growth policy. The second dimension is the gradual change of global liquidity expectations, the expansion of China's broad liquidity, the landing of structural wide credit and the stability of narrow liquidity. Focus on sorting out the allocation ideas, and closely follow the main line of "steady growth", energy revolution and scientific and technological innovation. Specifically include: ① cement and building materials under the main line of "steady growth" and the expectation of large-scale construction of affordable housing; Food and beverage consumption is expected to boost; UHV and digital economy under the background of broad financial expectation; ② Under the background of energy revolution, large-scale construction of clean energy, wind power, photovoltaic and energy storage; ③ The main line of industrial upgrading and new development under the route of scientific and technological innovation is smart cars, metauniverse and 5g + industrial Internet.
Stock index futures trading strategy
Viewpoint: the short-term market sentiment picks up, and the index may continue to rebound
(1) on February 9, the positions of if, IH and IC contracts were 203600, 113400 and 299200 respectively, and the day on month changes were - 4.66%, - 0.03% and - 3.62%;
(2) on February 9, the difference between the contract and spot price of if, IH and IC in the current month was -3.66 points, -0.56 points and -1.23 points, which changed by -2.09 points, -1.06 points and -1.43 points compared with the previous trading day.
Operation suggestion: if2203 is mainly bargain hunting, with support at 4620 points
Option trading strategy
Viewpoint: the implied volatility continues to decline and the index shock is stronger
(1) on February 9, the PCR (positions) of 50ETF option, Huatai 300etf option, harvest 300etf option and 300 stock index option were 0.74, 0.95, 0.82 and 0.75 respectively. The PCR values of 50ETF and 300etf options rebounded slightly. (2) On February 9, the implied volatility of 300etf option and 50ETF option were 15.3% and 15.9% respectively, and the implied volatility of 300etf option and 50ETF option continued to decline.
Operation suggestion: radical strategy: none at present; Steady strategy: buy 300etf to buy 4700 in February and sell 300etf to buy 4800 in February at the same time. The maximum profit of a single portfolio is 777 yuan and the maximum loss is 223 yuan; Hedging strategy: None
Risk tips
1. Rapid cooling of market transactions; 2 short term panic continued to spread risk factors.
