More than two years after the outbreak, the internal driving force for the general record breaking of bulk commodities comes from: 1) continuous countercyclical regulation represented by the unprecedented global “low interest rate and loose liquidity”; 2) The resulting high demand represented by the whole industrial chain related to real estate in China and abroad (such as durable goods consumption); 3) And the fragile commodity supply under the influence of the epidemic and energy. Looking forward to 2022, with the impact of the epidemic and the fading out of the low interest rate cycle, the post epidemic era may eventually usher in the “normalization” of demand and supply. However, we should also clearly see that the industrial reform will also be irreversible, from general rise to structure, which is “prosperity differentiation”.
For the upstream raw materials of new energy (rare earth, lithium, copper foil, aluminum foil, etc.), the short-term prosperity is still strong, the downstream demand has entered the stage of endogenous growth, and the general direction of the medium and long-term upward cycle will not change. The industrial prosperity is the most clear, and the continuous supply-demand mismatch will continue to be deduced in 2022.
As for base metals, China’s economic work in 2022 will be “stable”, which will support the price of base metals to some extent. However, from the global dimension, the supply structure is the core of attention due to the changes in the structure before, during and after the overseas economic demand epidemic and the unchanged trend of global liquidity taper.
For detailed analysis of each section, please refer to the text. The core targets are: 1) new energy vehicle industry chain: China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) , Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) , Yantai Zhenghai Magnetic Material Co.Ltd(300224) , Earth-Panda Advanced Magnetic Material Co.Ltd(688077) ; Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) 、 Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) 、 Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) 、 Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) 、 Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) ； Jiangsu Dingsheng New Material Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603876) , Shantou Wanshun New Material Group Co.Ltd(300057) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Copper Crown copper foil, etc. 2) Base metal: Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.Ltd(002532) , Sunstone Development Co.Ltd(603612) , Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.Ltd(000630) etc. 3) Precious metals: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Hunan Gold Corporation Limited(002155) , Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) , Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) etc
Risk tips: macroeconomic fluctuation risk, industrial policy change risk, new energy vehicle sales risk less than expected, supply side release risk more than expected, etc
