Macro categories:
With the recent rise of commodity prices again, the national development and Reform Commission has issued a voice to stabilize the prices of iron ore and other commodities, including measures such as interviewing key enterprises and strictly controlling information release. If the subsequent commodity prices further rise, we need to be vigilant against the risk of overweight of government regulation policies.
On February 8, the yield of U.S. 10Y treasury bonds once rose to 1.96%, reaching a high for more than two years, and the Treasury bond interest rates of European countries also showed a rising trend. At present, tightening expectations are the main factor impacting global risky assets. Looking back on the last round of interest rate hike cycle, in the game stage of interest rate hike expectation (the first interest rate hike - the landing of interest rate hike), the strength of interest rate hike expectation is accompanied by the strength of US dollar index, and the emerging market stock index, gold, crude oil and CRB composite index are adjusted (at least the rise and fall performance at the monthly level). After the fact that the interest rate increase was implemented, the US bond interest rate trend rose, the US dollar index peaked and fell, the emerging market stock index and bulk commodities stabilized and rebounded, and gold did not adjust significantly; Shrinking the balance sheet is obviously bad for financial assets. We found that the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve has a significant correlation with financial assets, a significant positive correlation with US stocks as high as 0.9, a negative correlation with US bond interest rate as high as -0.849, and a certain positive correlation with Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 of 0.68; However, the correlation between the Fed's balance sheet and commodities was low, recording 0.56.
Generally speaking, after the Spring Festival holiday, China's fiscal and monetary double width logic is "online" again. Under the logic of infrastructure construction and resumption of work, domestic demand industrial products (black building materials, traditional non-ferrous aluminum, chemical industry and coal) are recommended to bargain hunting and long; Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) the bullish logic based on supply bottleneck and cost transmission is still relatively smooth; At present, the energy chain is more dependent on the positive situation of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, so we need to be vigilant against the risk of subsequent events.
Strategy (ranking of strength): Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) (soybean, soybean meal, etc.), domestic demand industrial products (black building materials, traditional non-ferrous aluminum, chemical industry, coal) bargain hunting and long; Industrial products for external demand (crude oil and its cost related chain commodities, new energy non-ferrous metals), precious metals and neutral; More cautious stock index futures;
Risk point: geopolitical risk; Global epidemic risk; The deterioration of Sino US relations; The situation in the Taiwan Strait; The situation in Ukraine and Russia.
