In terms of the external environment, in terms of the epidemic situation, the number of new cases per day in the world has dropped significantly, and the impact climax of Omicron virus has gradually receded. In terms of economy, the economic situation in the United States and Europe continued to improve. In the United States, although its manufacturing PMI index fell slightly in January, the employment index increased significantly. The employment data released later showed that while the labor participation rate increased, the unemployment rate increased slightly, the quality of labor market data improved, and the non-agricultural employment data of that month was much higher than expected, The yield of us 10-year Treasury bonds rose significantly; In Europe, the manufacturing PMI index and unemployment rate data in January were better than market expectations, and the inflation level further increased, which further biased the European monetary policy. Not only the Bank of England announced an interest rate increase of 25bp, but also the European Central Bank's interest rate meeting hinted that further tightening measures might be taken during the year.
As far as China's environment is concerned, although the data vacuum has made the market's concern about wide credit impossible to eliminate, some clues still support our optimism: first, in December 2021, China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) , Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) , Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) and China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) four companies signed new contracts with a total amount of 958.7 billion yuan, which is not only higher than the value of each month in the year, but also a significant increase of 65.77% over the same period in 2020, The data verification of infrastructure afterburner is worth looking forward to; Secondly, since the end of January 2022, the rapid rise of the transfer interest rate of state-owned shares and silver notes in June also implies the transformation from wide currency to wide credit; Thirdly, the partial adjustment of the policy is expected to gradually alleviate the drag of wide credit in real estate related fields; Finally, in January 2022, the net financing amount of local bonds reached 670.08 billion yuan, much higher than that in the same period in recent years, and the net financing amount in February has also reached 63.04 billion yuan. In February 2021, the local bonds showed net repayment. The landing of pre issuance of local bonds provided sufficient capital guarantee for steady growth.
In terms of high-frequency data, in the downstream, the Spring Festival factor made real estate transactions significantly cold, and the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale price 200 index peaked and fell. In the middle reaches, steel prices continued to rise steadily and cement prices continued to decline. Upstream, the price of thermal coal continued to rise, the price of coking coal and coke remained volatile, the price of aluminum and zinc in non-ferrous metals continued to be strong, the price of copper and lead fluctuated slightly, the price of precious metals peaked and fell, and the price of crude oil hit new highs.
Tips on the development of the epidemic: the international risk exceeds the expectation
