Event description
On February 8, 2022, the main A-share indexes rose and fell. After falling more than 1%, the Shanghai composite index showed a "Shenzhen V" reversal, and finally closed up 0.67%, while the Shanghai Shenzhen 300 index and the gem index closed down 0.55% and 2.45% respectively, hitting a recent low. On the 8th, the intraday decline led by the gem index was weighed down by the negative impact of the renewed escalation of Sino US trade frictions. The Bureau of industry and security (BIS) of the US Department of Commerce announced on the 7th local time that 33 Chinese entities would be included in the "unverified list" of the Ministry of Commerce, imposing new restrictions on these entities' access to products from US exporters, American companies trading with these entities are required to conduct additional due diligence. Most of the Chinese entities involved are electronic companies, including optical companies, wind turbine blade companies, biomedical companies and national laboratories of universities.
Event comments
Bright future, firmly optimistic about the performance of A-Shares in the later stage. Although the A-shares fell significantly on the 8th, the gem index fell sharply, and the market sentiment was greatly impacted, we believe that at present, the A-shares are at or very close to the bottom area, and there will be "hidden willows and bright flowers" in the future. We are firmly optimistic about the performance of A-shares in the later stage, and confidence is more important than yellow gold.
Why firmly optimistic? We are firmly optimistic about the performance of A-Shares in the later stage, mainly for the following two reasons: (1) the policy is multi-point, the monetary policy is "active", "forward" and "accurate", the issuance of special bonds for fiscal policy is "early", "accurate" and "fast", fully supports the "stable growth" of the economy and helps underpin the A-share market. In 2022, under the background of downward pressure on the economy, the central government continued the main line of "stable growth" in the fourth quarter of last year, clearly put forward that "no policies conducive to stability will be introduced, more policies conducive to stability will be introduced, so as to promote stability with progress", and clearly clarified the policy direction. Generally speaking, the current key goal is "stability", and the policy requirement is "force". (2) The negative impact on the whole market brought by the United States adding China to the "unverified list" will gradually subside. With the continuous rise of China's position in the world, the global hegemony of the United States will be greatly challenged, and the pattern of Sino US competition game will continue to be the norm for a long time. In addition, due to the huge inflationary pressure in China and the "stagflation" crisis in the United States, we believe that the Biden government will probably focus on its own economic recovery and price stability this year. Therefore, although the competition game between China and the United States in 2022 is normal, it is not expected to be further upgraded.
Investment advice. (1) focus on traditional infrastructure and new building materials sectors, and (1) focus on infrastructure and new building materials sectors; (2) Brokerage sector; (3) Digital economy sector: "big (big data), intelligent (Artificial Intelligence), cloud (Cloud Computing), mobile (mobile Internet), things (Internet of things), chain (District chain), Finance (man-machine integration)" related sectors; Focus on the investment opportunities of top enterprises in the field of terminal security management, network security and digital security in the field of data security.
Risk tips: 1. China's macro policy is not as strong as expected; 2. The prospect of global epidemic worsens;
