Key investment points
Affected by the epidemic, the travel and consumption of Spring Festival in 2022 rebounded compared with that in 2021, and the characteristics of local Spring Festival are obvious. Gold jewelry, tax exemption, ice and snow economy, Baijiu and prefabricated dishes highlight frequent spots, and it is suggested to grasp structural opportunities.
1) from the perspective of travel, with the normalization and refinement of epidemic prevention and control, it rebounded compared with 2021, but it is still significantly lower than the level before the epidemic. According to the data of the Ministry of transport, the number of passengers sent across the country is expected to increase by 31.7% over the same period in 2021 and decrease by 69.2% over the same period in 2019. According to the data of the Ministry of culture and tourism, the number of Chinese tourists and tourism revenue in the seven-day Spring Festival holiday recovered to 73.9% and 56.3% respectively in the same period in 2019. Affected by the local Chinese new year, travel during the Spring Festival holiday shows the characteristics of local travel and multi frequency.
2) from the perspective of retail, the consumption of provinces and cities is greatly affected by the local epidemic situation and return to their hometown. According to the data of sample enterprises tested by various provinces and cities, Shanghai (compared with 19 years + 28.6%) and Jiangsu Province (compared with 19 years + 23% and compared with 21 years + 8.5%) performed better, mainly because they are still greatly affected by the local Chinese new year this year, while the growth rate of Shandong Province (compared with 21 years + 1.8%) and Shaanxi Province (basically the same compared with 21 years) is relatively slow.
3) there are many consumption highlights during the Spring Festival this year: ① gold jewelry: the Spring Festival and Valentine’s day are the peak consumption seasons. The sales of dealers in January increased by 30% – 50% year-on-year, and the overall growth from January to February is expected to be 20% – 40%. ② Tax exemption: during the Spring Festival holiday, the total sales of 10 outlying island duty-free stores in Hainan Province were 1.983 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 144%. ③ Ice and snow Economy: the Beijing Winter Olympics is a development opportunity to drive the continuous popularity of ice and snow tourism, ice and snow clothing and ice and snow equipment. Fourth, liquor: high-end liquor performance is stable, the second high-end liquor differentiation is obvious, Baijiu and Su wine has obvious post replenishment stock demand. ⑤ Prefabricated dishes: according to Alibaba data, the sales volume of prefabricated dishes on Taobao during the Spring Festival increased by more than 100% year-on-year. At the same time, it presents the characteristics of “prefabricated dish consumption line” moving northward.
Zhejiang Merchants’ key recommendation of gold stocks in February
1) Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) (002867. SZ): “aesthetic awakening” and “leading reform” will dominate the trend of gold and jewelry sector in the future. Leading brands have entered the “golden” era, and the performance growth and certainty will exceed expectations.
2) Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) (002304. SZ): Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) is an underestimated Suzhou wine leader with poor expectations. Structural upgrading, reform dividend and expansion speed outside the province jointly bring performance or exceed expectations.
Risk tips: repeated outbreaks at home and abroad, food safety risks, lower than expected rise in the wholesale price of high-end wine, fluctuations in the price of gold, etc
