Core summary
Investment suggestion: we judge that the A-share market can still achieve positive returns in the first quarter of 2022, but the index performance may not be as good as that in 2021, and there is a structural market. We recommend focusing on high growth tracks with performance certainty. Suggested configuration: (1) carbon neutralization theme. At present, China is fully promoting the goal of “carbon neutrality”. Clean energy such as wind power and photovoltaic is accelerating the replacement of traditional energy. We can pay attention to new energy, energy storage, energy conservation and environmental protection. (2) New economic theme. High end technology manufacturing industry may be an important driving force for future economic growth. It is suggested to pay attention to chip semiconductors and high-end intelligent manufacturing with accelerated domestic substitution and rapid growth of the industry. (3) Emerging consumption themes. At present, China’s PPI is at a high level and CPI rises slowly. The subsequent scissors difference between the two is expected to converge, and the industrial profits will shift from the upstream to the middle and downstream. It is expected that there will be some opportunities in the consumer sector. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the food, beverage and household appliances sectors. (4) Epidemic Damage theme. With the further improvement of vaccination rates in developing countries such as Africa, Mexico and Brazil, the global epidemic is expected to be further controlled. There is momentum for valuation and repair in the affected sectors of the epidemic, which can be paid attention to: aviation, airports, tourism, hotels, cinemas, etc.
Focus on hot topics: (1) the Winter Olympics opened and the development of ice and snow industry is in the ascendant. The 2022 Beijing Winter Olympic Games officially opened on February 4. The Winter Olympics coincided with the Spring Festival, driving the growth of sales of sporting goods and related services across the country. The prosperity of China’s ice and snow industry is rising due to the return of ice and snow outbound tourism, the vision goal of “300 million people participating in ice and snow sports” and the entry and layout of ice and snow facilities. We expect that with the increasing popularity of ice and snow sports, the recovery of consumption and the support of national policies, the ice and snow industry is expected to usher in rapid development. Related subjects include: China Sports Industry Group Co.Ltd(600158) , Shuhua Sports Co.Ltd(605299) and other related subjects. (2) According to the statistical bulletin of communication industry in 2021, the construction of new information infrastructure is expected to be accelerated. On January 25, the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the statistical bulletin of communication industry in 2021. On the whole, driven by the “digital economy” and other policies and the implementation of the “14th five year plan for the development of information and communication industry”, 5g network construction will further cover provinces, cities, towns and rural areas. At the same time, combined with the continuous promotion of cloud network construction and deployment by basic telecom enterprises, the cloud network integration service capacity will be continuously strengthened, and there may be great potential for network infrastructure construction. Related subjects include: Shanghai Baosight Software Co.Ltd(600845) , Zte Corporation(000063) , etc. (3) The consumption data of the Spring Festival is released, and the consumption potential may be released. During the Spring Festival, the net connected platform handled a total transaction amount of 4.2 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 11.58%. We believe that the relatively stable data reflects the gradual restoration of consumer confidence. With the support of the national policy of “stabilizing growth and promoting consumption”, the consumption potential may be released one after another. Among them, new consumption represented by smart home and Guochao commodities may become an important starting point to promote consumption, so as to stimulate market vitality. Relevant targets include: Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) , Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , etc.
Revenue performance of hot topics: among the hot topics from January 24 to January 28, the top gainers are wind power generation, lithium battery cathode, railway operation and, polycarbonate. The main reason is that affected by policies and Chinese traditional festivals, wind power, lithium battery cathode, railway transportation and other related sectors are sought after. The top five declines were e-government, today’s headline platform, operating system, China Radio and television and Huawei HMS. The main reason is that the current valuation of relevant concept sectors is high. Due to the impact of pre holiday hedge funds, the recent tightening of funds has led to adjustment.
From January 24 to January 28, among shenwanyi industries, the top five gainers last week were transportation, power equipment, petroleum and petrochemical, national defense and military industry and banking; The top five declines were computer, media, coal, food and beverage, medicine and biology. From the cumulative net inflow last week, the top five cumulative net inflows are comprehensive, power equipment, beauty care, petroleum and petrochemical and social services; The top five cumulative net outflows are computers, medicine and biology, electronics, mechanical equipment and non bank finance.
Risk warning: the promotion of relevant policies is not as expected; Uncertainty about the global epidemic.
