China's economic hot spot scanning
On January 1, RCEP officially landed
On January 1, 2022, the regional comprehensive economic partnership agreement (RCEP) officially entered into force, and six ASEAN member states including Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam and four non ASEAN member states including China, Japan, New Zealand and Australia officially began to implement the agreement. After RCEP came into force, the proportion of immediate zero tariff between China and ASEAN, Australia and New Zealand exceeded 65%. In the short term, the official implementation of RCEP will help to expand the export of China's advantageous products.
On January 1, the central bank implemented the continuous transformation of two direct tools to increase support for small and micro enterprises
The people's Bank of China issued a notice to implement the continuous conversion of two direct tools, the Pratt & Whitney small and micro enterprise loan extension support tool and the Pratt & Whitney small and micro enterprise credit loan support plan, from January 1, 2022. The central bank will give full play to the leading role of market-oriented tools for continuous transformation, establish a positive incentive mechanism, guide local corporate banks to make independent decisions and bear their own risks, expand the supply of inclusive small and micro loans, including credit loans, actively tap new financing needs, and increase support for small and micro enterprises, small and micro enterprise owners and individual industrial and commercial households, We will continue to promote the increment, price reduction and expansion of inclusive small and micro loans, help stabilize enterprises and ensure employment, and promote the stability of the macro-economic market.
On January 10, the national Standing Committee deployed to accelerate the promotion of major projects identified in the outline of the 14th five year plan and the special plan, and expand effective investment
On January 10, the executive meeting of the State Council was held. The meeting pointed out that to implement the deployment of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, all relevant departments should benchmark the key points determined in the outline of the 14th five year plan, scientifically and effectively prepare the national special plan, further refine the objectives and tasks, and put forward operable policies and specific projects. At present, 44 special plans have been basically prepared and issued for implementation. We should base ourselves on the present and focus on the long term, and vigorously and orderly promote the implementation of the 14th five year plan.
On January 12, the Bureau of statistics released price data, and CPI and PPI both fell
On January 12, the Bureau of statistics released the price data of December. The CPI fell in December, and the CPI of the whole year showed the characteristics of low before high. In December, CPI rose by 1.5% year-on-year, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous value, without tail warping factors; Core CPI rose by 1.2% year-on-year, the same as that of the previous month; The annual CPI rose by 0.9% year-on-year, compared with 2.5% in the same period last year, down 1.6 percentage points from the same period last year. From the annual data, the overall performance of consumer prices has been relatively low since 2021. From the monthly data, the price of the whole year of 2021 shows the characteristics of slight fluctuation and upward trend, with a small slope. In December, PPI rose by 10.3% year-on-year, down 2.6 percentage points from the previous month, and there was no tail warping factor in December. Among them, the means of production increased by 13.4% year-on-year and fell by 3.6 percentage points; The price of means of subsistence increased by 1%, which was the same as that of the previous month. The annual PPI increased by 8.1% year-on-year and - 1.8% year-on-year, an increase of 9.9 percentage points over the same period last year. From the annual data, since the beginning of this year, the rising price of raw materials under supply constraints has promoted the sharp rise of PPI in the whole year. From the monthly data, with the policy correction since the third quarter and the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing price playing a role, plus the decline of some international commodity prices, PPI prices fell from the high level in November after reaching the high point in October, and continued to fall in December.
On January 12, the central bank released financial data and social finance improved as scheduled
In December, social finance increased by 2.37 trillion yuan, an increase of 244.1 billion yuan less than the previous month and 650.8 billion yuan more than the same period last year. The stock of social finance increased by 10.3% year-on-year, an increase of 0.3 percentage points over the previous month. Due to the financial backwardness in 2021, the new government bond financing reached 1.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 356 billion yuan over the previous month and 459.2 billion yuan over the same period last year, which has become the main supporting factor for the widening of credit this month. M2 increased by 9% year-on-year, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. M1 rose 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to 3.5%. In December, in addition to the overall RRR reduction, the central bank also lowered the one-year agricultural small refinancing interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, and the one-year LPR fell 5bp to 3.8%, serving the real economy more accurately and improving the marginal activity of the real economy.
On January 13, the General Administration of Customs released import and export data. Exports continued to increase, domestic demand weakened and imports fell
In December, the import and export volume was US $586.5 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 20.3%. Among them, the export volume was US $340.5 billion. Under the high base, the year-on-year growth rate continued to slow down to 20.9%, but it still maintained a year-on-year growth rate of more than 20%, with a month-on-month growth rate of 4.8%, down 3.6 percentage points from the previous month, but the overall export remained high; Imports reached US $246 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.5% and the previous value increased by 31.7%. The import volume fell back from the import growth rate. The trade surplus reached 94.46 billion US dollars, up 22.75 billion US dollars from the previous month. Throughout the year, China's trade surplus was US $676.43 billion, a year-on-year increase of 29.1%. Annual exports increased by 29.9% year-on-year to US $3.36 trillion; Imports increased by 30.1% year-on-year to US $2.69 trillion.
On January 14, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the administrative measures for acceptance, discount and rediscount of commercial bills (Draft for comments)
On January 14, the people's Bank of China and Bank Of China Limited(601988) Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a notice on soliciting public opinions on the administrative measures for acceptance, discount and rediscount of commercial bills (Draft for comments). The measures improve the qualification requirements of acceptors and discounters, business risk control, information disclosure, supervision and management, which helps to standardize the bill business behavior of commercial banks, improve their acceptance ability and risk prevention ability, promote the standardized development of the bill market and protect the rights and interests of small and medium-sized enterprises.
On January 17, the central bank lowered the interest rates for medium-term lending facilities and open market reverse repo operations
On January 17, the people's Bank of China launched a 700 billion yuan one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation and a 100 billion yuan seven-day reverse repurchase operation, and lowered the medium-term lending facility operation interest rate and the open market reverse repurchase operation interest rate by 10 basis points respectively. China integrity International believes that after the policy interest rate is lowered this time, the entity financing cost will be reduced to a certain extent, and the credit environment may be improved. In the short term, it may promote the bond market yield to continue to decline, but the downward space may be relatively limited. For the follow-up monetary policy, monetary policy is easy to loosen but difficult to tighten under the increasing pressure of steady growth. We will continue to give full play to the dual functions of the total amount and structure of monetary policy tools. In terms of the choice of monetary policy tools, in the future, the central bank may pay more attention to the accuracy and effectiveness of policy operations. While flexibly carrying out open market operations, it will strengthen the use of structural monetary policy tools, combine them with aggregate monetary policy tools, support the development of the real economy, and the opportunities for RRR reduction throughout the year still exist.
On January 17, the Bureau of statistics released the annual macro data. Although the economy has been repaired, the marginal strength is weakening
On January 17, the Bureau of statistics released the macro data of 2021. In 2021, China's GDP growth rate was 8.1%, the nominal year-on-year growth rate was 12.8%, the GDP deflator was 4.38%, and the two-year compound growth rate was 5.1%. Quarter by quarter, GDP weakened quarter by quarter, showing a trend of high before and low after.
The industrial added value increased by 9.6% year-on-year, and the two-year compound growth rate was 6.1%; Investment increased by 4.9% year-on-year, and the two-year compound growth rate was 3.9%; The zero amount of social security increased by 12.5% year-on-year, and the two-year compound growth rate was 3.9%; Exports increased by 29.9% and imports by 30.1% year-on-year; CPI increased by 0.9% year-on-year, and PPI increased by 9% year-on-year; M2 increased by 9% year-on-year, and the scale of social financing increased by 31.4 trillion yuan.
On January 19, the national standing committee decided to continue the tax reduction and fee reduction policy that partially expired
On January 19, the executive meeting of the State Council was held. The meeting decided to continue to implement another 11 tax preferential policies related to science and technology, employment and entrepreneurship, medical treatment and education until the end of 2023 on the basis of the extension of some expired tax preferential policies in the early stage. First, the qualified science and technology business incubators, University Science and technology parks and maker space incubation service value-added tax shall be exempted, and the real estate and land provided for their own use and for the use of incubated objects shall be exempted from real estate tax and urban land use tax. We will continue to relax the recognition standards for start-up science and technology enterprises. If qualified venture capital enterprises and angel investors invest in them, they will deduct the taxable income according to a certain proportion of the investment amount. Second, exemption from Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale market, farmers' market property tax and urban land use tax. Third, continue to authorize provincial governments to decide on exemption, suspension or reduction of local reservoir resettlement support funds. Fourth, the individual income tax in kind such as temporary subsidies and bonuses for medical personnel and epidemic prevention workers and preventive drugs issued to individuals by units shall be exempted. The registration fee of drugs and medical devices related to epidemic prevention products shall be exempted. Fifth, the real estate tax of college student apartments and the stamp tax of relevant lease contracts are exempted. Property tax and urban land use tax shall be exempted for the self-use property and land of enterprises undertaking the policy business of commodity reserve. The third-party enterprise income tax for pollution prevention and control shall be levied at a reduced rate of 15%.
On January 27, the Bureau of statistics released the profit data of industrial enterprises, and the growth of enterprise profits slowed down
On January 27, the Bureau of statistics released the profit data of industrial enterprises in December. In 2021, the profits of Industrial Enterprises above designated size increased by 34.3% year-on-year, and the two-year compound growth rate was 18.2%. In December, the profit increased by 4.2% year-on-year, down 4.8 percentage points from the previous month. In December, the profit growth of industrial enterprises slowed down. On the one hand, due to the high base, on the other hand, it is related to the limited profit restoration of downstream industries. At present, under the pressure of high cost, the operation risk of small and micro enterprises is large, the number of loss making enterprises is still large, the amount of loss increased rapidly year-on-year, and the efficiency of industrial enterprises continues to improve.
On January 30, the Bureau of statistics released PMI data. The demand continued to be weak, and the PMI fell slightly
On January 30, the Bureau of statistics released the PMI data of January. In January, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous value, but still in the expansion range. Among them, the production index fell to 50.9%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point; The new order index decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 49.3% compared with the previous value. In January, the comprehensive PMI output index was 51%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month. The business activity index of non manufacturing industry decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 51.1% compared with the previous month, which was higher than the critical point for five consecutive months. Among them, the business activity index of service industry decreased by 1.7 percentage points to 50.3%, and the business activity index of construction industry decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 55.4%.
