Macro categories:
On Tuesday, A-Shares showed a V-shaped trend. Recently, there is a risk of further deterioration of China US relations. The U.S. Department of commerce expanded the "unverified list" of Chinese entity export control. It is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of Sino US trade friction and impact on A-Shares and RMB exchange rate.
On February 8, the yield of U.S. 10Y treasury bonds rose to 1.96%, the highest level in more than two years, and the Treasury bond interest rates of European countries also showed a rising trend. At present, the tightening expectation is the main factor impacting global risky assets. In addition to the Federal Reserve, the UK and the European Central Bank successively released hawks last week. Looking back on the last round of interest rate hike cycle, in the game stage of interest rate hike expectation (the first interest rate hike - the landing of interest rate hike), the strength of interest rate hike expectation is accompanied by the strength of US dollar index, and the emerging market stock index, gold, crude oil and CRB composite index are adjusted (at least the rise and fall performance at the monthly level). After the fact that the interest rate increase was implemented, the US bond interest rate trend rose, the US dollar index peaked and fell, the emerging market stock index and bulk commodities stabilized and rebounded, and gold did not adjust significantly; The reduction of the balance sheet is obviously bad for financial assets. We found that the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve has a significant correlation with financial assets, a significant positive correlation with US stocks as high as 0.9, a negative correlation with US bond interest rate as high as -0.849, and a certain positive correlation with Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 of 0.68; However, the correlation between the Fed's balance sheet and commodities was low, recording 0.56.
At the logical level, the Spring Festival holiday may bring seasonal performance of large categories of assets from three angles. First, the resumption of work logic will boost industrial products. The resumption of downstream enterprises, real estate and infrastructure construction after the festival will significantly boost industrial products. The win rate of wind non-metallic building materials under the five transactions after the festival is as high as 80%, and that of wind nonferrous metals, chemicals and oil is as high as 70%, This seasonality is also applicable to the macro background of carrying out infrastructure investment in advance at present. Secondly, holiday consumption boosted Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) . Grains, Oils and soft commodities in Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) performed well on the first trading day and five trading days after the festival. Finally, monetary easing after the holiday is conducive to the stock index. In the past ten years, the stock index has performed well in five trading days and 20 trading days after the Spring Festival.
Generally speaking, after the Spring Festival holiday, China's fiscal and monetary double width logic is "online" again. Under the logic of infrastructure construction and resumption of work, domestic demand industrial products (black building materials, traditional non-ferrous aluminum, chemical industry and coal) are recommended to bargain hunting and long; Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) the bullish logic based on supply bottleneck and cost transmission is still relatively smooth; At present, the energy chain is more dependent on the positive situation of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, so we need to be vigilant against the risk of subsequent events. However, it should also be pointed out that the recent risks of China US relations and global interest rate risks need to be closely tracked.
Strategy (ranking of strength): Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) (soybean, soybean meal, etc.), domestic demand industrial products (black building materials, traditional non-ferrous aluminum, chemical industry, coal) bargain hunting and long; Industrial products for external demand (crude oil and its cost related chain commodities, new energy non-ferrous metals), precious metals and neutral; More cautious stock index futures;
Risk point: geopolitical risk; Global epidemic risk; The deterioration of Sino US relations; The situation in the Taiwan Strait; The situation in Ukraine and Russia.
