On the first trading day of the year of the tiger, commodities are expected to have a good start
During the long Spring Festival holiday, most external commodities rose, energy performance was outstanding, and industrial metals and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) also performed well. Energy continued its strong performance, with us oil rising by nearly 6%, and both Bu oil and US oil stood at US $90 / barrel; In terms of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , CBOT soybean rose by more than 7%, CBOT soybean meal rose by more than 9%, and cotton, palm oil and soybean oil all performed well. In terms of industrial metals, LME nickel, LME tin and LME copper all closed up.
Hot comments: with the return of risk appetite, bulk commodities may have a good start after the festival. First, the external market has increased greatly, and the price may be higher after the festival or collectively; Second, there are many favorable factors in the current macro environment, China's steady growth policy has accelerated the advance force, and the overseas economic recovery has remained stable; Third, with the end of the Spring Festival holiday and the passing of the peak period of large-scale rain and snow, China's infrastructure real estate will gradually return to work; Fourth, the loosening of policies, the slowdown of credit and the overall or slight recovery of the real estate market have brought some support to the downstream demand. Generally speaking, the supply and demand fundamentals of bulk commodities are good, or the rebound trend may continue. However, the US Federal Reserve is about to raise interest rates, the easing attitude of the European Central Bank has changed, and the pace of global economic recovery has slowed down, which may restrict the rebound space of commodities.
1. Black building materials: the supply and demand is expected to continue to improve, and the steel price is expected to continue its strong performance.
During the long Spring Festival holiday, the rise of external commodities was gratifying, and some spot steel prices tried to rise. It is expected that there will be support for the steel price after the festival. However, due to the repeated call of the national development and Reform Commission, the ore price and double coke also entered the downward channel, the support on the cost side will be weakened, or the space for further rebound of steel price will be restricted.
In the medium term, the central bank will start a new round of easing cycle, fiscal policy will also be put into force in advance, the impact of superimposed epidemic and rainy and snowy weather will be weakened, and infrastructure and real estate will gradually return to work. Although from the perspective of long-term cycle, the inflection point of real estate demand has arrived, with the continuous force of steady growth in short-term cycle, real estate will show more soft landing, demand is expected to bottom up in the second quarter, and the most pessimistic stage of steel demand may have passed. Focus on the release of demand after the festival.
2. Base metals: long and short factors are intertwined, and metals may maintain a volatile trend.
During the long Spring Festival holiday, the high level of the US dollar index, which suppressed the trend of metals, fell, superimposed on the continuous decline of LME copper inventory, and the Futures Copper quickly stopped falling and recovered its lost ground. However, the U.S. non farm data greatly exceeded expectations, indicating that the impact of the epidemic on the job market has weakened, and the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates is heating up or limiting the rise of Lun copper. From the perspective of fundamentals, on the one hand, the supply of upstream copper mines shows an increasing trend, the supply of copper mines has improved compared with the previous period, and the import of crude copper has gradually recovered. The supply of raw materials of smelters is sufficient, and the production scheduling enthusiasm of smelters is high. China's refined copper output is expected to remain high; On the other hand, although the consumption in the downstream is weakening before the Spring Festival, there is a willingness to bargain hunting and stock, the inventory maintains a downward trend, and the market presents a tight supply situation, which forms a strong support for the copper price.
Precious metals: Despite the short-term decline of the US dollar index and support for gold prices due to the strength of the euro, the January interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve released a more hawkish message than expected: the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates as soon as March, and may raise interest rates every month in the future, and the contraction will also begin after the interest rate increase. The path of the Fed's future interest rate increase and reduction is gradually clear, and it is expected that gold will continue to operate under pressure in the medium term.
3. Energy and chemical industry: geopolitical crisis ferments, and international oil prices hit new highs.
During the Chinese New Year holiday, the continuous fermentation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, coupled with the severe cold weather in the United States, may lead to the shutdown of some oil wells. The EIA report shows that the U.S. crude oil inventory unexpectedly decreased by 1 million barrels last week. WTI crude oil was boosted by many positive factors, and the price reached a new high repeatedly, rising to a maximum of $93 / barrel.
Looking back, the impact of Omicron variant on crude oil demand is relatively limited at present. High frequency data show that the traffic congestion index and airport security inspection personnel in the United States are at a high level, reflecting that the consumption of refined oil has not been affected; In addition, the supply recovery of some OPEC oil producing countries is not as expected, especially the smaller oil producing countries can not increase production, and the crude oil market remains tense. Therefore, it is expected that the short-term oil price will fluctuate at a high level under the influence of supply and demand factors, and the medium and long-term supply and demand will gradually tend to balance. It is still necessary to pay attention to the impact of the epidemic, geopolitics and OPEC + oil production policy on both ends of crude oil supply and demand.
4. Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) : the supply and demand is still tight, and the oil remains strong.
Meidou: during the long Spring Festival holiday, due to the impact of dry weather, many analysis institutions lowered the forecast of soybean production in South America, which ignited the expectation of increased demand for soybeans in the United States. The superimposed USDA report showed that the export demand of meidou was better, and the price of CBOT meidou rose sharply.
Soybean oil: the monitoring shows that before the festival, China's soybean crushing volume rebounded significantly, and the output of soybean oil increased. However, the downstream enterprises continued to prepare goods, picked up goods faster, and the soybean oil inventory continued to decline slightly. It is expected that in the future, with the increase of inbound volume, the soybean crushing volume will continue to increase, and the soybean oil inventory may stop falling and turn up. In the short term, affected by the sharp rise of American beans, American soybean oil and crude oil in the external market, there may be a sharp make-up market in the internal market.
Palm oil: sppoma data show that from January 1 to 31, the output of horse palm decreased by 12.4% month on month, while the export decreased by 25.91% - 27.08% in the same period. According to this calculation, the inventory of horse palm may fall in the range of 1.6-1.65 million tons at the end of January, up from 1.58 million tons at the end of December last year. However, boosted by the sharp rise in crude oil and soybean oil, palm oil remains strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the MPOB report on the 10th in the future.
The market expects that the output of horse palm will not recover significantly in the first quarter. At the same time, the supply of rapeseed and soybean is still tight. There are many difficulties in the growth of global oil production and inventory reconstruction. The tight supply is still the main dependence of oil bulls. It is expected that oil will continue to be strong in the short term.
