Full a dimension: full a performance improved month on month, and the main board was stronger than expected
— 2021q4 all a performance improved month on month, the main board showed outstanding toughness, and the science and Innovation Board fell significantly. In 2021q4, the growth rate of non-financial performance of all a and all a was 49.6% and 51.4% respectively, with a month on month increase of 23.8 and 10.8 percentage points respectively; The performance growth rates of the main board, gem and sci-tech innovation board were 51.4%, 45.0% and 56.4% respectively, with month on month changes of 25.5%, 17.7 and – 23.8 percentage points respectively.
— the growth rate of all a and main board performance was significantly higher than the consensus expectation of the market. The non-financial growth rate of all a and all a exceeded the expectation by 19.8% and 0.0% respectively; The growth rates of the main board, gem and Sci-tech Innovation Board exceeded expectations by 23.0%, – 25.4% and – 24.2% respectively.
Category style: the market boom is stronger than expected, and the necessary consumption has recovered significantly
— at the index level, the growth rate of small and medium-sized stocks is relatively strong. In 2021q4, the performance growth rates of CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 800 and CSI 1000 were 35.0%, 57.3%, 50.0% and 55.0% respectively, with a month on month increase of 15.8, 15.7, 27.8 and 20.9 percentage points respectively. The overall market boom was stronger than the consensus expectation of the market. The growth rates of CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 800 and CSI 1000 exceeded expectations by 14.3%, – 3.2%, 24.6% and – 8.2% respectively.
— in terms of industry style, the performance of upstream resources continues to increase, and the necessary consumption has recovered significantly. The growth rate of upstream resources, technology and midstream manufacturing performance is high; Consumption, manufacturing, big finance and technology style increased month on month. Essential consumption, midstream manufacturing and large financial boom exceeded expectations. The performance growth of essential consumption, midstream manufacturing and big financial style was higher than the consensus expectation. The performance of essential consumption not only recovered significantly, but also significantly exceeded the consensus expectation of the market.
Industry comparison: absolute high growth, marginal improvement and unexpected characteristics of performance
— the industries with the highest absolute growth rate include petroleum and petrochemical, coal, non-ferrous metals, basic chemical industry, electronics, steel and transportation, and the performance of upstream resources has generally increased; Industries that have improved more month on month include commerce and retail, coal, textile and clothing, household appliances, communications, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery. The growth rate of coal, clothing and electronics industries is higher than that of the previous industries.
— the performance growth rate of household appliances, coal, non bank finance, commercial retail and automobile was significantly higher than the consensus expectation of the market; The coal, household appliances, automobile, textile and garment industries meet the conditions of high performance growth, improved growth month on month and better than expected performance.
Individual stock boom: an unexpected perspective of “Fundamentals + volume price signal”
— we combine the fundamentals with different kinds of identification methods in the volume and price signals, and build an unexpected “selected 50” combination through the scoring model.
— considering some limitations of the above model, we simplified and modified the “Fundamentals + volume price signal” strategy, screened all a targets based on the current over expected growth rate and stock price jump conditions, and obtained a “Fundamentals + surplus afterwave” over expected stock pool containing 57 targets.
Risk tips: 1. Performance correction of listed companies; 2. The epidemic situation exceeded expectations; 3. Macroeconomic policies changed more than expected.
