Key investment points:
Holiday highlights review
(1) national development and Reform Commission (NDRC): promptly introduce a series of policies and measures to implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand; (2) On February 3, the Bank of England announced to raise the benchmark interest rate from 0.25% to 0.5% to cope with the pressure of rising inflation; (3) Non farm employment in the United States increased by 467000 in January, the largest increase since October last year, far better than the 150000 people generally expected by the market; (4) The US House of Representatives passed the US competition act of 2022, including US $52 billion in support funds for the semiconductor industry; (5) Tracking of main consumption data during the Spring Festival: Film: price increase and decrease; Transportation: 60% lower than that before the epidemic; Travel: about 30% lower than before the epidemic; Catering: large increase in prefabricated dishes; Large increase in high-end red wine; (6) Driven by the Winter Olympics, the ice and snow industry has developed rapidly; (7) The share price of meta platforms corrected sharply.
Performance review of major assets
Bond market: the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds of major countries generally rose, and the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds of the United States exceeded 1.9%; Exchange rate: the US dollar weakened and global risk appetite rebounded; Stock market: major countries generally rose, and Asian stock indexes ranked first; Crude oil and metal prices rose weakly.
We can expect a good start, focusing on the two main lines of steady growth and high prosperity
The most important impact on the market before the holiday or the expectation of tightening monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, which is expected to weaken in the short term. First, with the continuous improvement of the supply side, if inflation falls faster than expected, the Fed may gradually turn dove in the future; Secondly, from the past history, the stock market will not immediately fall when the Fed increases interest rates, such as the interest rate increase cycle since 2015; In addition, when we talk about the Fed raising interest rates, in fact, we are concerned about the impact of the exchange rate. During the holiday, the US dollar index fell. With the weakening of the US dollar, risky assets including A-Shares are expected to be boosted. The second factor that suppresses the market before the festival is the holiday effect. With the disappearance of holiday influencing factors, we believe that the market risk appetite is expected to improve after the holiday.
In terms of configuration, the steady growth policy is accelerated, and the main line of steady growth is still expected to continue. It is suggested to focus on the opportunities of stable growth superimposed with undervalued sectors such as finance, engineering machinery, real estate, automobile and household appliances. Secondly, in the context of high-quality development, we suggest paying attention to high prosperity opportunities such as new energy, semiconductors, national defense and military industry and industrial digitization.
February Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) top 10 gold stocks
In February, the top 10 gold stocks of the League of nations were: Guangdong Aofei Data Technology Co.Ltd(300738) , Boe Technology Group Co.Ltd(000725) , Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , Humanwell Healthcare (Group) Co.Ltd(600079) , China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Unisplendour Corporation Limited(000938) , Guangdong Rifeng Electric Cable Co.Ltd(002953) .
Risk tips
Repeated outbreaks; The economic recovery is less than expected; The steady growth policy was less than expected.
