Research conclusion
The average rise and fall of our top ten targets in January 2022 was – 11.9%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.3%.
We believe that the main reason for the significant adjustment of A-Shares in January is that under the influence of the continuous fermentation of the expectation of interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve, the valuation of A-Shares and high valuation track stocks such as new energy, semiconductor, medicine and metauniverse are adjusted in resonance. In addition, the decline of fund issuance scale and certain redemption pressure in early 22 were also one of the reasons for the adjustment of a shares. Specifically: first, although historically, the linkage between US stocks and A-Shares was not strong during the Fed’s interest rate hike, we should pay attention to that after the epidemic, There are many overlaps in the industry distribution of the key stocks of A-Shares and US stocks (the market value of A-Shares is more than 50 billion yuan, the value of US stock market is more than 50 billion US dollars, and the increase is more than 100% from April 1 to December 31, 2020): they are concentrated in semiconductor, new energy vehicles (including automobiles, electrical equipment and battery materials), national defense and military industry, energy and other industries. We believe that the main reasons why the rising key companies in the two markets will overlap to a certain extent are: (I) domestic A shares replace benchmark US stocks, such as semiconductors; (II) the price rise of global energy and other bulk commodities resonates, such as oil; (III) wave of global Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) cooperation and competition. Therefore, these key stocks may have resonance when rising and synchronous adjustment when falling. 2、 At the beginning of the year, the issuance scale of the fund fell, and there was redemption pressure. At the end of the 21st century and the beginning of the 22nd century, there was great pressure on the issuance of funds, and there was a certain situation of “redeeming the old and buying the new”. The position adjustment of institutions may lead to the valuation adjustment of “track shares”. On the one hand, compared with Q4 in 20 years, the issuance scale of partial equity funds in Q4 in 21 years has shrunk significantly (319.7 billion yuan in 21q4, 530.6 billion yuan in 20q4, a record high of 450 billion yuan in January of 21 years, and only 102.7 billion yuan as of January 31 of 22 years); On the other hand, the overall rate of return of the fund in 2021 is significantly lower than that in 2020. Therefore, it can be predicted that the pressure of fund issuance in the beginning of 22 years will be significantly greater than that in the same period of 21 years. In this case, the fund’s heavy position stocks and “track stocks” may have greater selling pressure.
Strategic perspective outlook in February 2022: how to layout after the decline? The main investment theme of A-Shares this year is the market style and policy catalysis, especially the investment opportunities brought by the steady growth policy and the sectors with low expectations. Due to the long-term decline of these industry sectors and companies, institutional positions and stock prices are at a relatively low level. Therefore, as long as there are new policies to catalyze the stock price, the stock price will perform, and the resistance is relatively small. Specifically: first, reverse industries under low expectations: on the one hand, the most important policy guideline in the past 22 years is the steady growth policy. Under this expectation, the real estate, real estate chain, infrastructure chain and large consumption have the expectation of favorable marginal policies. Although the market is skeptical about the strength of steady growth, it can not prove the falsification. At present, these sectors fall synchronously with the index, which is a better time point for building positions. On the other hand, although the uncertainty of the epidemic situation may still disturb the recovery rhythm of catering, tourism, transportation and other industries, with the liberalization of overseas epidemic control and the further scientific prevention and control of the global epidemic, the “post epidemic” industry is expected to gradually realize the expected repair or even reverse. 2、 New thematic investments are still actively emerging: for example, digital economy, automotive intelligence, state-owned enterprise reform and other directions. (1) Policies such as the 14th five year plan for the development of digital economy and the 14th five year plan for promoting national government informatization have formed a direct catalyst, and relatively low-level stocks such as media, communications and electronics may have the opportunity to take turns. (2) In terms of automotive intelligence, industries such as auto parts and semiconductors are expected to continue to benefit from the increased penetration of new energy vehicles. (3) Expectation of asset injection such as state-owned enterprise reform: 2022 is the closing year of the three-year action of state-owned enterprise reform. It is a year that needs to produce results, focusing on the military industry sector with low asset securitization rate. 3、 At the same time, the technology sector with strong long-term policy certainty, large industry space and accelerated domestic substitution, as well as the military industry, new energy vehicles and other sectors, although the short-term adjustment range is large, are still the medium and long-term allocation direction of the market: the valuation cost performance of some leading companies and representative companies has begun to appear, which is worthy of gradual allocation.
In February, 22, the targets of concern were: Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) (600298, buy), China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) (000733, overweight), Foryou Corporation(002906) (002906, buy), China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) (600036, not rated), Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (300750, not rated), Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) (600011, not rated), Zhejiang Weiming Environment Protection Co.Ltd(603568) (603568, buy), satellite Chemistry (002648, buy), Nantong Jianghai Capacitor Co.Ltd(002484) (002484, buy), Goertek Inc(002241) (002241, buy)
Risk tips
1. The macroeconomic downturn exceeded expectations; 2、 The global epidemic broke out more than expected again; 3、 The promotion of the “steady growth” policy was less than expected
