Key investment points:
On December 19, we released "autumn harvest and winter storage: Taking retreat as advance and paying attention to the stable growth chain", which proposed that from the perspective of 1-2 months, the market entered the window period of structural transformation, and it is expected that the fluctuation will increase and take retreat as advance in the short term. Since late December, with the rebalancing of the Baotuan sector, the market volatility has increased.
On January 23, we released "why to turn to the" three low "sector, and how to look at it in February?" It is proposed that looking forward to 2022, we believe that it is a bull market transformation period of new and old structures, that is, the new growth chain represented by the science and innovation board has entered a stage of readiness. However, the first half of the year is an observation dimension. The Fed's interest rate increase and the slowdown of corporate profits are disturbed. We put forward the idea of "three low" allocation (i.e. low valuation, low position and low position).
The Fed's expectation of raising interest rates has been strengthened recently. How to see its impact? Looking forward to the first quarter, how to see the interpretation of a shares?
Continue to lay out "three low"
After the oversold, there may be a short-term or phased rebound, but looking forward to February to March, we think it is not a good opportunity to attack. We will patiently wait for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates and continue to explore the stable growth chain and travel chain with the characteristics of "three lows", At the same time, reserve new growth chains represented by science and Innovation Board (domestic substitution represented by semiconductors and specialized special innovation, intelligent driving, industrial intelligence represented by industrial software, etc.). Among them, for the "three low" direction, in terms of steady growth, pay attention to banks, real estate, construction, household appliances, roads, etc; In terms of travel chain, it pays attention to airports, airlines, hotels, etc.
Focus on the disturbance of the Fed's interest rate hike
On February 4, the US non farm payrolls released in January, further enhancing the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates. Earlier, at the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in January, Powell released hawkish signals. In this context, we believe that we should pay attention to the disturbance of the Fed's interest rate hike in the first half of the year. During the Fed's interest rate hike cycle since 1990, the trends of US stocks, A-Shares and Hong Kong stocks can be found: (1) US stocks often adjust in the early or late stage of interest rate hike; (2) During the period of US stock adjustment, A-Shares and Hong Kong stocks are often affected by stages, but the impact is different.
Annual report forecast and Q1 forward-looking clues
According to the forecast of the 21st Annual Report, from the perspective of exceeding expectations, the proportion of exceeding expectations companies in non banking, beauty care, coal, environmental protection, household appliances, medicine and other industries ranks first.
Looking forward to the first quarter report of 22 years, combined with our calculation caliber, the industries with the highest year-on-year growth rate and month on month improvement include transportation, non-ferrous metals, coal, media, automobile, communication, commerce and retail, medicine, non bank, etc.
Risk tip: performance growth is lower than expected; Liquidity tightening exceeded expectations.
