Main points:
In the short term, the market will be dominated by shocks. In the near future, liquidity expectations are loose. Under the tone of steady growth, there are structural opportunities.
From the perspective of liquidity indicators, liquidity is relatively loose in the near future. National Development and Reform Commission: at present, macro-control should focus on stability, macro policies should be stable and effective, and infrastructure investment should be carried out moderately in advance. M2 is higher than M1 year on year; Shibor interest rate fluctuates normally; In January, it was announced that the one-year LPR was reduced by 10bp to 3.7%, and the five-year LPR was reduced by 5bp to 4.6%; The yield of China national debt fluctuated near the average value of the year. Recently, the newly established partial stock fund shares remain at a low position; The latest financial balance of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1713.167 billion yuan, which continued to fall; In terms of social finance, the new RMB loans decreased in December; In November, the amount of additional issuance of A-Shares increased significantly. The net outflow of funds from the north in the past week was 26.072 billion yuan, and the net inflow of funds from the south in the past week was 7.847 billion yuan.
From the perspective of market sentiment indicators, the recent sentiment is general. The number of strong stocks in the upper part of mA20 and multi head arrangement fell to a very low position, and the number of trading shares and the height of the board were near the average; Before the lunar new year, the trading activity decreased; During the closing period of A-Shares during the Spring Festival holiday, most of the peripheral markets rose, which was good for the opening of A-Shares in the year of the tiger to a certain extent.
From the perspective of market valuation, the overall valuation of the two cities is still in a reasonable range. The difference between Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index EP and treasury bond yield has fluctuated below the average recently, and the implied yield of stock assets is not high compared with risk-free interest rate. The risk premium of CSI 500 fluctuates above the moving average. Recently, with the market correction, it has a trend of fast approaching the upper edge of the channel. In terms of overall style, small and medium-sized stocks are stronger than the market.
In terms of profit, the growth rate of A-share profit in the third quarter of this year continued to fall compared with the second quarter. Since this year, the profitability of the cycle style is much stronger than that of other styles, which matches the pro cycle market, and fell sharply in the third quarter. The growth style is the second, and the growth rate fell slightly in the third quarter, so the growth style has advantages.
Investment suggestions:
Considering the recent performance, valuation and profitability of the industry, we are optimistic about the rebound in the Spring Festival. New and old infrastructure, digital economy and other sectors meet the general tone of steady growth and consumption promotion, and the participation of relevant sectors is cost-effective; The annual reports of listed companies will gradually disclose that under the background of the full implementation of the registration system in the future, the importance of the company’s fundamentals and profitability will be improved, and companies with better performance than expected can be mined in the cyclical sectors such as energy and chemical industry with better early profits; Under the expectation of monetary easing, banks, securities and other financial sectors will also benefit from abundant liquidity.
Risk tips:
The epidemic situation is repeated, the economic data is less than expected, the friction between China and the United States is intensified, the impact of the instability of the global financial environment, and the financial report data is less than expected.
