Strategic view
Looking back in January, the global asset prices fell sharply under the expectation of the Fed’s interest rate hike and table contraction, and there was a certain correction in the A-share market due to the disturbance of overseas markets. Looking forward to February, under the tone of China’s “stable growth”, fiscal and monetary policies are expected to remain relatively loose, which will provide strong support for China’s macro liquidity and national economy, and overseas risk disturbance is expected to slow down. As for the investment idea in February and entering the disclosure period of the annual report, we believe that the layout should be carried out from the perspective of “performance improvement”. It is suggested to pay attention to the nonferrous metals industry and electronics industry with high expectation rate of annual report disclosure, as well as the direction of improving the expected power industry chain and infrastructure.
Investment suggestions:
First, the colored direction. On the demand side, China’s infrastructure development is expected to be clear in 2022, with the demand of the superimposed new energy industry continuing to pull, while the prices of some new energy related metals continue to rise to new highs; On the profit side, according to the pre disclosure of the annual report, the overall profit of the non-ferrous industry is good. At the same time, under the high commodity price, the industry profit is expected to continue.
The second is the electronic direction. At the profit level, the pre disclosure of the annual report shows that the industry has a high pre happy rate; In terms of policy, domestic substitution and independent and controllable industrial chain are the key directions of policy force; At the demand side, new energy vehicles, UHV construction, 5g communication equipment and industrial Internet construction will be its increment.
Third, the direction of Rural Revitalization. From the statement of the central economic conference, rural revitalization is expected to be one of the main keynote of this year’s policy, focusing on seed industry, rural infrastructure, Jiangsu Nonghua Intelligent Agriculture Technology Co.Ltd(000816) and other directions.
Portfolio performance review in January
The performance of Sichuan financial stock portfolio in January was slightly weaker than that of the market. On the one hand, affected by the lower than expected performance disclosure of some military enterprises, the national defense military industry index fell by 17.92% in January, and Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co.Ltd(002651) and Avic Electromechanical Systems Co.Ltd(002013) in Sichuan financial stock portfolio retreated by more than 20%; On the other hand, there are relatively few defensive banks and infrastructure targets in the gold stock portfolio. To sum up, the yield of Sichuan finance and capital stock portfolio in January was – 11.85%, outperforming the gem index (- 12.45%), losing the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index (- 7.63%), Shanghai Composite Index (- 7.64%) and Shenzhen Component Index (- 10.30%).
Gold stock portfolio of Chuancai securities in February 2022
Zhejiang Fenglong Electric Co.Ltd(002931) (machinery), Sichuan Crun Co.Ltd(002272) (machinery), Avic Electromechanical Systems Co.Ltd(002013) (military industry), Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co.Ltd(002651) (machinery), Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (food and beverage), Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (food and beverage), Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) (steel), Sichuan Injet Electric Co.Ltd(300820) (electrical equipment), Zhejiang Jiemei Electronic And Technology Co.Ltd(002859) (Electronics), Eoptolink Technology Inc.Ltd(300502) (Communication).
Risk warning: the profit of the enterprise is less than expected; Increased volatility in overseas markets; Systemic risk.
