After the central bank announced the RRR reduction in early December, we compared the RRR reduction to a "signal bomb" and credit expansion to a "big force" in our report "RRR reduction is a" signal bomb ", and the key depends on whether the" big force "comes or not".
In hindsight, the "big force" is indeed a more critical factor. As the credit and social finance continued to be lower than expected, the so-called cross year market did not appear in the market.
In view of this key contradiction, we focus on the following issues in this report:
1. Why is the credit cycle so important that it should be compared to a "big force"?
2. Resume the credit expansion in 2012
3. What may be the main support for the credit expansion in 2022?
Core conclusions:
1. The reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates is both a "signal bomb" and a means to expand credit (Social Finance). Over the past few months, the large force has continued to be lower than expected, which is the main internal cause of the market downturn.
2. The credit cycle directly determines the valuation direction of a shares. There are two transmission paths: ① the credit cycle determines the current residual liquidity; ② The credit cycle determines the profit expectation of a shares.
3. Considering that the State Council Information Office meeting in mid January emphasized the prevention of credit collapse, it is expected that the probability of credit starting from late January to February should be relatively large. If the "big force" can come, everything may be better.
4. Maintain the previous recommendations: first, TMT [Huawei supply chain and ecosystem (financial information innovation, semiconductor equipment, materials, etc.), smart car, metauniverse, 5g + industrial Internet] that may become the main line of the year. The second is the oversold rebound of boom track (energy storage, battery, lithium mine, military industry, etc.). Third, new investment directions in steady growth (nuclear power, hydrogen energy, etc.).
Risk tips: macroeconomic risk, default risk exceeding expectations, overseas epidemic fermentation risk.
