Core question 1: can the high growth expectation strategy achieve high excess returns? Under the background of the decline of annual profits in 2022, what strategies to combat the decline of profits is the core issue of the market, and the high prosperity is one of the directions of the market. In hindsight, high prosperity can indeed achieve high excess returns. But in advance, the performance of companies with high growth expectations is not outstanding. This is mainly because market expectations usually have systematic errors, and companies with higher expectations tend to overestimate profits, which is the same in different industries. Therefore, it is a risky strategy for companies with high growth expectations at the beginning of the year, especially during the downward period of corporate profits.
Which core issues are expected to exceed expectations? Since the high expectation strategy can not bring stable benefits, it may be a more feasible strategy to choose industries that are more expected to exceed expectations. Historically, the profit expectation error of stable growth industries in the general sense is indeed significantly smaller. Consumer industries represented by food and beverage, household appliances and medicine, and industries related to stable growth represented by building materials and construction may have higher profit certainty. Considering the pressure on the overall profit growth in 2022, we believe that the performance growth of the stable growth sector deserves more attention, especially the two main lines of consumption and stable growth.
Core question 3: how will the style of large and small discs be interpreted? After September 2021, the style of large and small disks will be changed repeatedly. The frequent style switching phenomenon since the second half of 2021 shows that the market has not yet reached a consensus. How will the style of large and small markets be interpreted in 2022? From a long-term perspective, after large market fluctuations, the styles of large and small stocks tend to change; The annual dimension and the relative prosperity of large and small sectors have an important impact on the style; In addition, when the relative turnover rate of large and small discs exceeds the extreme value, small-level style conversion often occurs. It is expected that the performance growth of large cap stocks will lead small cap stocks in 22 years, and the style of large cap stocks is expected to be dominant this year.
Market view: the "good start" of the stable growth sector. The recent micro performance expectation is still rising, and the "spring agitation" is expected to arrive as scheduled. The credit data in January may become a "good start" signal for a shares. The investment direction is concerned with two main lines, the consumption line concerns the Baijiu and medicine with high certainty, and the popular consumer goods benefiting from the consumption stimulus policies and the logic of price rise. The main line of steady growth focuses on traditional infrastructure (machinery, building materials and construction) and new infrastructure (wind power and photovoltaic).
Risk tip: the economic growth is less than expected, resulting in poor performance of the A-share market; Fluctuations in China US relations suppress market risk appetite; The covid-19 epidemic has deteriorated significantly.
