1. Overall configuration: the peripheral disturbance increases, and it is cold when opening the door north. Inflation in Europe and the United States continued to reach a new high, the expectation of overseas interest rate hikes increased, the risk appetite was disturbed again, and the inflow to the North slowed down. In early January, benefiting from the improvement of China’s PMI data, the stabilization and recovery of social finance, the maintenance of export toughness, and the “double drop” of LPR driven by the interest rate cuts of Omo and MLF, foreign capital continued to steadily allocate a shares. However, after mid January, tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated, impacting global risk appetite, and the VIX Index rose significantly. At the same time, the latest inflation data in Europe and the United States reached a new high, and the U.S. employment data was repaired beyond expectations. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting in January also strengthened the expectation of raising interest rates and shrinking tables again. At the end of last month, the outflow exceeded 10 billion for two consecutive days, and the overall admission rhythm slowed down.
The inflow of configuration disk slowed down, the trading disk turned into outflow, and the position on the main board continued to rise. As of January 28, the accumulated net inflow of northbound funds in January was about 16.775 billion yuan. According to our disassembly and estimation, in January, the allocation sector was still the main force of admission, and the admission rhythm slowed down. The net inflow in a single month was about 21.274 billion yuan, while the trading sector capital turned into a small outflow, and the net outflow in a single month was about 2.563 billion yuan. From the perspective of sector positions, the positions on the main board and the science and Innovation Board continued to rise in January, while the positions on the gem continued to fall. As of January 28, the positions of the main board, gem and Kechuang board were 81.59%, 17.39% and 1.02% respectively.
2. Style and structure: the financial real estate sector took the lead in increasing its holdings. Northbound capital increased its holdings of financial and real estate in January, and most of the necessary consumption was reduced. From the perspective of capital splitting, except for midstream manufacturing and other service sectors, other sectors have achieved consistent position increase and decrease. The differences are concentrated in midstream manufacturing and other service sectors, and the trading discs have slightly reduced their holdings in midstream manufacturing and other services.
3. Industry flow: the inflow of banks ranks first, and the outflow of pharmaceutical and biological products is most. On the whole, the top three industries with net inflow in January were banking, power equipment and non-ferrous metals; The top three industries with net outflow are medicine, biology, electronics and household appliances. At the trading level, the top three industries with net inflow are banking, non-ferrous metals and basic chemical industry in turn; The top three industries are electric power, food and electronic equipment. At the allocation level, the top three industries with net inflow are power equipment, banking and non bank finance in turn; The top three industries of net outflow are medicine and biology, household appliances and computers.
4. Position distribution: Bank positions rise first, while pharmaceutical and biological positions fall mostly. In terms of northward position distribution, bank positions have increased significantly since January, while pharmaceutical, biological and electronic positions have mostly fallen. At the market value level, the shareholding market value of banking, real estate and building decoration industries ranked first, while the shareholding market value of pharmaceutical and biological, food and beverage and power equipment industries mostly fell.
5. Allocation of individual shares: the shareholding concentration has rebounded, and China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) has taken the lead in increasing its holdings. On the whole, the top five stocks with net inflow are China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) and Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) ; The top five stocks of net outflow are Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) and Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) . At the trading level, the top five stocks are China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Zhejiang Yongtai Technology Co .Ltd(002326) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) and Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) ; The top five stocks of net outflow are Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , China stock market news, Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) . At the allocation panel level, the top five stocks of net inflow are Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) ; The top five stocks of net outflow are Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) and China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) .
Risk tips: 1. Increased volatility in overseas markets; 2. Exchange rate depreciation risk.
