Epidemic situation: the number of newly diagnosed cases in the world has dropped, and many countries have relaxed epidemic prevention policies. In the last week, about 21.55 million and 69000 new confirmed cases and deaths of covid-19 pneumonia were recorded worldwide. Compared with the previous week, the new confirmed cases decreased by 8.9% and the new deaths increased by 14.5%. The total amount of global vaccination decreased slightly this week, including 49% in the United States and 11% in Europe. The global booster injection has been inoculated with about 1 billion doses, an increase of 5.6% over last week. The global booster vaccination rate was 12.7%, up 0.7% from last week. Many countries have further relaxed epidemic prevention policies. The U.S. Department of labor said it would eliminate the requirement of mandatory covid-19 virus testing for enterprises with more than 100 employees or mandatory covid-19 vaccination for employees. The UK Department of transport stipulates that people who are fully vaccinated with covid-19 vaccine will no longer need to be tested for covid-19 virus after arriving in England from abroad.
Overseas: US employment improved significantly and the Bank of England raised interest rates again. A number of Fed officials came forward to appease the market and will carefully consider policies. In addition, compared with a single interest rate increase of 50 basis points, most Fed officials are more supportive of a single interest rate increase of 25 basis points. The Bank of England took the lead in raising interest rates and shrinking the table, and the attitude of the European Central Bank towards raising interest rates changed. Since the Bank of England raised interest rates by 15 basis points to 0.25% in December last year, the Bank of England again raised the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.5% at its meeting in January. The United States added 467000 non farm jobs unexpectedly in January, up from a record low of 199000 to 510000 before December. The labor market is still tight, but the labor participation rate has rebounded significantly. Labor supply in transportation and storage industry has improved. Non farm hourly wage reached a new high year-on-year and month on month. The year-on-year growth rate of salary level in most industries has increased. The strong performance of non-agricultural employment may consolidate the interest rate increase plan. The core PCE price index of the United States recorded 4.9% in December, hitting a new high in nearly 40 years. In January, the final value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index fell to 67.2, the lowest since November 2011. The real GDP of the United States in the fourth quarter of last year was 6.9% on an annualized basis, compared with the previous value of 2.3%. The US manufacturing PMI index fell sharply, while the manufacturing PMI index of European countries rose and fell.
Prices: Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale prices rose and international oil prices rebounded. The week before the festival, the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale price index of the Ministry of agriculture rose month on month, with the average price of 28 key monitored vegetables and 7 key monitored fruits rising. The average prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil rose this week, and the prices of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) coal and rebar rebounded in the week before the festival.
Liquidity: the bill interest rate rose and the US dollar index fell. From January 24 to 30, the interest rate of short-term funds differentiated. The weekly mean value of dr001 decreased by 34.9bp month on month, and the weekly mean value of dr007 increased by 1.6bp month on month; The weekly average of 3-month Shibor interest rate and 3-month certificate of deposit issuance interest rate decreased month on month. The interest rate of bills rebounded sharply, and the weekly average of 1-month, 6-month and 1-year rediscount interest rate of state-owned shares and silver bills increased significantly. From January 24 to 30, the central bank carried out RMB 1100 billion reverse repurchase operation. RMB 500 billion reverse repurchase expired, RMB 5 billion CBS was put in and RMB 5 billion CBS expired; From February 7 to 11, the central bank’s open market operation will have 900 billion yuan of reverse repo due. The dollar index fell this week, while the RMB depreciated slightly.
Performance of major categories of assets: Asian stock markets led the rise, while European and American bond yields rose. During the Spring Festival holiday from January 29 to February 4, Hong Kong stocks led the rise, and other indexes of Asian stock markets also rose; European countries’ 10-year Treasury bond yields rose significantly. In the week before the holiday from January 24 to 28, China’s equity industries fell, with the smallest decline in electrical equipment; The weekly average yield of 10-year Treasury bonds decreased by 3.6bp, and the weekly average yield of 10-year CDB bonds decreased by 5.7bp.
Risk tip: policy changes, economic recovery is less than expected.
