Core view
Poor expectation: steady growth brings about credit expansion, which helps to improve the credit environment. Fiscal policy actively promotes risk resolution through reform. Under the background of the 20th stability maintenance, local governments will also pay more attention to risk prevention and response. The credit market is expected to be actively repaired. We suggest paying attention to the potential investment opportunities brought by credit improvement and appropriate credit sinking.
Core view: steady growth and wide credit. It is suggested that the equity market pay attention to finance, real estate, construction, building materials, post real estate cycle, such as furniture and household appliances. Under the combination of wide credit + wide currency, the long-end interest rate will pay more attention to wide credit in the future. It is expected that the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds will rise to near the high point of 3.2% at the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second quarter. However, wide currency and interest rate cut can guide the yield of 1-year treasury bonds downward and promote the steepening of the yield curve of treasury bonds.
In 2021, the fiscal revenue exceeded and expenditure was saved by more than 2 trillion yuan. The reserve policy will focus on supporting 2022
In 2021, the finance will continue the tone of 2020 and continue to exceed revenue and save expenditure, with a scale of more than 2 trillion. In terms of general public budget, the actual value of fiscal revenue and expenditure in 2021 reached 20.25 trillion yuan and 24.63 trillion yuan respectively, and the scale of excess revenue and expenditure saving reached 485 billion yuan and 379.8 billion yuan respectively, totaling 864.8 billion yuan. In terms of government funds, in 2021, the actual revenue and expenditure of government funds reached 9.80 trillion yuan and 11.36 trillion yuan respectively, and the scale of excess revenue and expenditure savings reached 349.7 billion yuan and 1760.4 billion yuan respectively, totaling 2110.2 billion yuan.
Excess income and expenditure savings reflect the thinking of fiscal reserve policy and will form positive financial support for 2022. The excess income and expenditure saving funds of the general public budget can be used to supplement the budget stability adjustment fund and carry forward the balance to 2022; On the one hand, the excess income and expenditure saving funds of government funds can be carried forward to 2022, and on the other hand, they can be transferred into the general public budget of 2022 to supplement fiscal revenue. We expect that, excluding the funds of the supplementary budget stability adjustment fund, the funds that can be carried forward to 2022 are expected to reach 2 trillion, which will form positive support for 2022.
Fiscal focus on steady growth, the progress of expenditure will be accelerated, and there are clues to boost investment
Under the requirement of stable growth, the fiscal policy has made significant efforts. It is expected that the progress of fiscal expenditure in 2022 will be significantly faster than that in 2019, and the actual progress of expenditure will be significantly higher than that in chronological progress, driving the growth of investment. Combined with meso and micro data, there are many signs of financial development in projects, construction and funds: 1) there is an abundant supply of financial funds. The 1.2 trillion special bonds issued in Q4 in 2021 and the 1.46 trillion special bonds issued in advance in 2022 will provide sufficient funds, focusing on nine aspects to promote the development of investment in narrow infrastructure, new infrastructure, power infrastructure and affordable housing. 2) In 2022, the implementation of reserve projects was accelerated, and 102 major engineering projects and special plans were accelerated. At the same time, the centralized commencement of major projects in various regions was significantly accelerated compared with previous years. As of January 17, the commencement ceremony of major projects in the first quarter had been held in provinces and cities such as Henan, Sichuan, Anhui, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Hubei and Shanghai. 3) Abundant credit and active cooperation. January is the big month of traditional credit. Especially under the tone of the central bank's efforts to stabilize growth and broaden credit this year, it is expected that there will be a significant increase in credit and social finance in January, with a new credit of 4.3 trillion and a new social finance of 5.73 trillion. 4) The high-frequency volume and price of commodities have been reflected. Since 2022, the prices of iron ore, rebar, glass and other commodities have risen steadily. In the context of financial pre investment promotion + the central bank's "four arrows" wide credit, we suggest that the equity market pay attention to the investment opportunities in the areas benefiting from wide credit, such as finance and real estate, building materials, post real estate cycle, such as furniture and household appliances.
To maintain stability in the new year, we should not only stabilize growth, but also prevent risks
Overall development and security, coordination of cross cycle and counter cycle adjustment, and steady growth also need to be promoted on the basis of risk prevention. In 2022, the finance will focus on three areas of risks: 1) strictly control the new implicit debt and pay attention to the new local government debt in high-risk areas. 2) Actively promote the resolution of implicit debt through reform. On the one hand, promote the pilot of no implicit debt in the whole region, which will help to clear the implicit debt nationwide in the future; On the other hand, we should actively play the role of special refinancing bonds, promote the dominance of implicit debt, alleviate the pressure of periodic debt repayment, and so on. 3) Finance requires that "pay close attention to other major risks related to the overall situation, put forward opinions and suggestions in time, prevent the transfer and agglomeration to finance, and prevent the risk of disposal risks". We believe that local governments should also compact the main responsibility and establish effective response methods to deal with risk events.
We believe that credit expansion brought about by steady growth will help improve the credit environment. Fiscal policy will actively promote risk resolution through reform. Under the background of the 20th National Congress of stability maintenance, local governments will also pay more attention to risk prevention and response. The credit market is expected to gradually and actively repair. We suggest paying attention to the potential opportunities brought by credit sinking.
Risk tip: the implementation of policies was less than expected, the economy went down more than expected, and the global economic and financial crisis broke out
