Research conclusion
The information contained in the local two sessions can often be used as the forward-looking guidance of the economic growth objectives and industrial policies of the national two sessions. Since January, the two sessions have been held one after another. This paper combs and summarizes a series of key contents, and predicts the two sessions.
5.5% may become the national economic growth target in 2022. The laws of recent years show that the GDP growth goals of Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong are the closest to the national goals. The goals of Beijing and Shanghai have been synchronized with the country since 2017, and Guangdong is consistent with the country in 2019 and 2021. This year, Beijing's GDP target is "more than 5% (the reason may be that its economy is greatly affected by the epidemic prevention and control and the high base). Both Shanghai and Guangdong are set at" about 5.5%. We expect that the national GDP growth target this year may be about 5.5%.
Many provinces have set fixed asset investment growth targets of 10% or more, released a strong signal of steady growth, and generally proposed to "expand effective investment", mainly focusing on major projects, focusing on traditional infrastructure, new infrastructure and affordable housing such as transportation and water conservancy: (1) "old infrastructure" will not be absent, focusing on the metropolitan area. In the second half of last year, the programmatic document for the construction of Chengdu Chongqing metropolitan area, the outline of the construction plan of Chengdu Chongqing dual city economic circle, was issued, marking that the construction of Chengdu Chongqing metropolitan area has entered the fast lane. Correspondingly, this year, Sichuan proposed to vigorously promote 160 key projects of Chengdu Chongqing dual city economic circle (65 projects were started in 2021, with an investment of 215.4 billion yuan); In addition, Beijing also said that it will maintain the investment intensity of 100 billion this year and develop the urban sub center of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. In terms of fund guarantee, some provinces and cities highlighted the need to make good use of special bond funds. Guangxi pointed out that it would continue to coordinate the financial and government special bonds of 40 billion yuan (the same as last year), and Zhejiang proposed to strive to increase the available special bond funds by more than 20% to cover major projects above the province. In recent years, the proportion of special debt in Zhejiang Province has been stable at about 5% in the country. The "available special debt funds have been increased by 20%." on the one hand, it means that the amount of special debt in the country will remain high. On the other hand, it also means that the proportion of investment in key projects and infrastructure will be increased; (2) Focus on supporting the "new infrastructure", and the 5g construction goal has increased significantly. All provinces generally proposed to promote the construction of new infrastructure, mainly focusing on 5g base stations, data centers and public charging piles. Among them, the provinces that have set 5g construction targets are the most. Hebei and Henan have added 5g construction targets in the government work report. At the same time, the number of 5g construction in most regions has increased. The target of Shanxi is twice that of last year, Yunnan is 1500 more than last year, and the target of new 5g base stations in Guangxi is 5000 less, but new industrial Internet infrastructure projects have been added; Guangdong's goal is a step closer. In addition to realizing the wide coverage of 5g network in the Pearl River Delta and the full coverage of cities, counties and urban areas in eastern and western Guangdong and northern Guangdong (the main urban areas last year), it also proposes to increase the support for 6G technology research and development; (3) The intensity of shed reform has declined, and the old reform is still continuing. Affordable rental housing is expected to relay the shed reform and play a "supporting role" for the depressed real estate investment. Among the provinces and cities that have formulated the shed reform indicators, Inner Mongolia, Henan and Chongqing plan to complete 10000 sets of shed reform (25900 in 2021, the same below), 200000 sets (190000) and 15000 households (20000) respectively. Except Chongqing, the scale of shed reform has decreased; At the same time, big cities have generally strengthened the promotion of affordable rental housing. The planned construction scale in Beijing and Shanghai is 2.5 and 2.6 times that completed last year, respectively.
Multiple measures promote the recovery of consumption, but most of the targets are more conservative than last year. Compared with the target of 2021, the growth target of total retail sales in all provinces this year is conservative, and only a few provinces exceed the previous value. Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Hubei provinces did not set targets in 2021, but set targets of 6.5%, 6% and 10% respectively this year; In most other provinces, such as Shanxi, Sichuan and Guangxi, the growth target of total retail sales this year is flat or lower than that of last year for different reasons. For example, the actual growth rate of total retail sales in Shanxi Province in 2021 is 14.8%, far exceeding the original target of 10%, overdrawing some market potential, so the target is lowered to 7% this year. Although consumption has always been subject to the epidemic in the past two years, various regions still promote consumption recovery through measures adapted to local conditions, including creating an international consumption center city, building a sports tourism and business complex, developing and cultivating new consumption on the basis of stabilizing traditional consumption, and vigorously improving the rural consumption market.
Risk tips
The rebound of epidemic situation in some areas affects the pace of recovery and further restricts the formulation and implementation of policies;
The risk that economic growth and steady growth at the national level are not completely consistent with the information disclosed by the local two sessions;
The speculation on the growth target is based on historical assumptions, and there is a risk of prediction deviation.
