Event:
On January 30, 2022, the Bureau of statistics released PMI data. In January, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) was 50.1, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.
Comments:
In January 2022, the PMI index was 50.1, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the pace of expansion of the manufacturing industry slowed down. From the sub item data, the pace of production expansion continued to slow down, and the production index fell 0.5 percentage points to 50.9, still in the expansion range; At the same time, the new order index fell below the boom and bust line to 49.3, and the contraction rhythm of the demand side accelerated. In terms of import and export, the export margin improved, but it is still in the contraction range, while the pace of import contraction accelerated significantly. The new export order index rebounded by 0.3 percentage points to 48.4, and the import index fell by 1 percentage point to 47.2. In terms of price, the ex factory price index and the purchase price of raw materials have returned to the expansion range, and the ex factory price has rebounded to 50.9. At the same time, under the background of the rise in the prices of oil, coal and other related products, the price of raw materials has rebounded sharply to 56.4, and the scissors gap between the two has expanded. In terms of inventory, the inventory index of finished products and raw materials fell down at the boom and bust line, and the inventory deconvolution process continued.
For PMI of different types of manufacturing enterprises, the manufacturing outlook of large enterprises continued to improve in January, rising to 51.6%. The prosperity of medium-sized and small manufacturing enterprises fell slightly. The manufacturing PMI of medium-sized enterprises fell by 0.8% to 50.5% in January, still in the expansion range. The manufacturing boom of small enterprises in January fell to 46% from 46.5% in December, entering the bottom of history. In terms of sub items, due to seasonal factors such as the Spring Festival, the production of large, medium and small manufacturing enterprises is now falling. From the perspective of new orders, new orders and new export orders of large manufacturing enterprises are still expanding. New orders and new export orders of small manufacturing enterprises are now falling. In the case of the expansion of new export orders of medium-sized enterprises, the decline of new orders may mean that there are greater problems in domestic demand. Insufficient domestic demand has become an important reason to curb the momentum of economic expansion and put small and medium-sized enterprises in trouble. In addition to cutting interest rates to promote bank credit, the national standing committee also further decided to continue the partially expired tax and fee reduction policy. The continuous development of the policy will help small and medium-sized enterprises get out of trouble.
In terms of the employment index, the manufacturing employment index fell 0.2 percentage points to 48.9% in January, and seasonal factors pushed the manufacturing employment down slightly. In terms of the employment index, the manufacturing employment index fell 0.2 percentage points to 48.9% in January, and seasonal factors pushed the manufacturing employment down slightly.
On the whole, under the background of triple pressure and the spread of the epidemic in many places, the outlook of the manufacturing industry fell in January, and the demand side was still weak; In terms of structure, the prosperity of small and medium-sized enterprises is still weak. Among them, the contraction pace of small enterprises is significantly faster than that in the same period in history. Efforts need to be made to "stabilize growth" and rescue policies.
Risk tip: the economic recovery outside China is less than expected.
