Macro balance sheet summary:
[central bank side] the current round of monetary easing is not finished yet to be continued: in December, the total scale of the central bank's balance sheet fluctuated and widened, and the continuous rise in the share of foreign exchange is the main reason. After the interest rate reduction in January, it is necessary to observe whether the growth rate of social finance rebounded in January, whether the sub item of new RMB loans stabilized, and the central bank's easing is still promising. In terms of real estate, the current policy reserve space is large. At present, the real estate regulation is still in the marginal relaxation stage of urban governance. If the downward speed of real estate continues in the future, the 5-year LPR reduction speed may be accelerated.
[bank side] the transmission of broad money to broad credit is slow: in December, the scale of the balance sheet of commercial banks widened slightly, the structure of asset side and liability side changed little, and the demand for physical financing is still low. In the follow-up, driven by the wide currency, the real credit will improve in the first quarter of 2022, but whether it can continue to improve or not still needs to observe the policy promotion. Whether the marginal loosening of real estate credit policy can continue under the logic of "real estate is not fried" deserves attention. It is expected that the full start of credit easing will need to wait for the further development of infrastructure credit and the improvement of physical credit conditions after currency easing.
[financial side] the 22-year financial front can make a good start: in December, the finance showed a state of "over revenue and under expenditure". At present, the Ministry of finance has issued a special debt limit of 1.46 trillion yuan in advance, which is higher than 0.81 trillion yuan in 2019 and 1.0 trillion yuan in 2020. Superimposed on the excess balance of the general public budget in 2021 (0.8 trillion) and the special debt carry forward of government funds (1.5 trillion), a total of 2.3 trillion yuan will be used in the first quarter, so the financial strength is the strongest in the first quarter of 22. At the same time, the issuance of local bonds reached 699.8 billion yuan in January 22, significantly higher than that in 2021 and 2019, and the financial start is promising.
[enterprise side] the profit scale is under pressure, but the structure is improved: in December, the price of production side continued to fall, and the differentiation of profit structure of industrial enterprises improved. The financing demand of enterprises is still not high. Observe the credit situation in the first quarter. The countercyclical policy has strengthened its support for the economy. However, policy fermentation takes time, and the transmission of wide currency to wide credit is not obvious. In the follow-up, the credit had a good start in January. The imbalance of upstream and downstream profits will continue to improve, and the short-term profit margin of upstream raw materials will decline under the continuous force of policies such as ensuring supply and double carbon; The profit margins of equipment manufacturing, consumer manufacturing and private small and micro enterprises in the middle and lower reaches will be improved under the promotion of continuous cost reduction policies.
[residential] real estate sales continue to bottom, waiting for policies to help the demand side recover: we expect real estate sales, construction and real estate investment to further decline year-on-year in the first quarter of 2022, and may enter a negative range due to the impact of a high base. Under the general direction of "promoting the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry", local regulatory policies may be further relaxed, the real estate credit policy may be repaired, and there will be urban governance. Therefore, after the first quarter of 22 years, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the policy adjustment should be strengthened to help the real estate bottom and rebound in the middle of the year.
