Research conclusion
In the previous report, "what's the difference between this year's" local Chinese New Year " At the same time, we have made a macro outlook on the impact of the Spring Festival holiday in the first quarter of last year. At present, the Spring Festival holiday in 2022 is coming to an end. From the medium and high frequency data, the characteristics of "local new year" this year are weaker than last year, and the Spring Festival transportation shows stronger vitality. In the dimension of consumption on other holidays, the data are differentiated between regions and industries.
The Spring Festival transportation has been carried out for 20 days. Up to now, the passenger transport growth is better than expected. On the afternoon of January 15, the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council held a press conference. The relevant person in charge of the Ministry of transport introduced the emergency support of transportation during the festival, the research and judgment of Spring Festival passenger flow and other relevant situations. The Ministry of transport estimates that the Spring Festival transportation in 2022 will send 1.18 billion passengers nationwide, with an average of 29.5 million passengers per day, an increase of 35.6% over 2021, a decrease of 20.3% over 2020 and a decrease of 60.4% over 2019 (before the epidemic). Compared with this expectation, since the beginning of the Spring Festival transportation in 2022 (February 6), according to the special class news of the spring transportation work of the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council published every day, this year's spring transportation has increased by 43.5% year-on-year compared with 2021, nearly 8 percentage points higher than the previous estimate of the Ministry of communications. This growth rate has remained at a high level of about 50% before the first day of the first day of the year, and the growth rate has been between 20% - 30% since the third day of the year, This feature may be the embodiment of staggering peak return. However, it is worth noting that if the degree of repair is still not high compared with 2019, the cumulative passenger volume is still less than 35% of that in 2019.
Subway data show that the traffic differentiation between cities is obvious. From New Year's Eve to the fifth day of the year, the cumulative subway passenger volume in Shanghai increased by 1.3% year-on-year, but has recovered to the level of 90.6% in 2019; Chongqing, Wuhan and Suzhou also showed strong vitality: Chongqing Metro passenger transport increased by 12.7% year-on-year and recovered to 96.5% in 2019; 25.1% and 97.4% in Wuhan respectively; Suzhou is - 2.8% and 121.7% respectively; The recovery degree of Guangzhou and Xi'an is relatively weak: the passenger transport of Guangzhou Metro is - 24.7% year-on-year, recovering to 58.7% in 2019; Xi'an is - 27.8% and 61.7% respectively.
The Spring Festival box office in 2022 shows the characteristics of ticket price increase and box office decrease. According to public media reports, as of 19:00 on February 6, the number of film viewers in this year's Spring Festival exceeded 100 million, with a total box office of more than 5.9 billion yuan. This box office figure is lower than the level in the same period in 2021 (7.8 billion yuan and 160 million film viewers), which is basically the same as the performance in the same period in 2019 (5.905 billion yuan). In terms of weight and price, the reduction of film viewing passengers may be related to the increase of ticket prices: according to public media reports, the average ticket price of the Spring Festival in 2021 is 48.9 yuan, while the average ticket price from February 1 to February 5 in 2022 is 56.1 yuan, 54.5 yuan, 53.2 yuan, 50.6 yuan and 50.3 yuan respectively.
Tourism data in some regions increased sharply. According to the calculation of the data center of the Ministry of culture and tourism, 251 million Chinese tourists will travel during the seven-day Spring Festival holiday in 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%, which will return to 73.9% of the same period of the Spring Festival holiday in 2019 according to a comparable standard; China's tourism revenue reached 289.198 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.9%, returning to 56.3% over the same period of the Spring Festival holiday in 2019. The growth rate of some regions is higher than that of the whole. According to the same journey travel data, during the Spring Festival holiday this year, the number of hotel reservations in Xinjiang increased by 110% compared with the same period of the Spring Festival last year, the number of hotel reservations in Hainan increased by 96%, and hotel reservations in Jilin, Anhui, Hubei and other provinces also increased significantly.
Consumption in 2022 is on the way to further repair, but the process is not achieved overnight. It is still plagued by factors such as epidemic prevention and control and price rise, and the performance of industries and regions can not be generalized. From the Spring Festival data, population mobility may be the biggest starting point for the next repair. Combined with various recent steady growth measures (such as the distribution of consumption vouchers in multiple regions), the growth space of the consumption sector is worth looking forward to.
Risk tips
The Winter Olympics led to production restrictions in some industries, which had a certain negative impact on short-term industrial production.
