U.S. employment data: in January, the number of new non-agricultural employment in the United States unexpectedly recorded 467000, far higher than the market expected 150000, and the previous value was revised up to 510000; However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell below market expectations, recording 4%. The performance of the overall employment data is not poor, resulting in a rapid surge in the market’s expectation of the Fed’s interest rate hike in March, and greater pressure on US bonds. Since this year, the labor participation rate has always remained low, but the data in January has improved significantly. What the labor market is facing is not the lack of jobs, but the poor labor enthusiasm. With the rebound of the participation rate, the market is more optimistic about the subsequent recovery of the labor force.
US economic data: US GDP performed well in the fourth quarter, and private investment and export growth rose sharply. The initial value of US GDP in the fourth quarter unexpectedly exceeded expectations, with an annualized quarterly rate of 6.9%, far exceeding the expected 5.5% and 2.3% ahead. From the breakdown data, on the one hand, private investment continued to rise rapidly, with an annualized rate of up to 32%, and exports recovered from negative growth in the third quarter to positive growth, up to 24.4%. In terms of personal consumption, the growth rate rose slightly, recording 3.3 °/^
Stock market: during the Spring Festival, the three major indexes of U.S. stocks rose across the board, among which the NASDAQ rose by 2.38%, the S & P closed up 1.55% and the Dow rose 1.05%. The three major indexes of the European stock market are divided, and the UK stock market performs strongly; FTSE 100 closed up 0.67%, France closed down 0.21% and Germany fell 1.43%. Asian stock markets performed strongly, with the Nikkei rising 2.7%, South Korea closing up 3.26% and the Hang Seng index rising as high as 4.34%. In emerging markets, Brazil closed up 0.3%, India rose 2.53% and Russia fell 0.5%. MSCI index rose across the board. MSCI in developed markets rose by 1.51%, while emerging markets and the Asia Pacific region performed better, rising by 2.12% and 2.56% respectively.
Bond market: the non-agricultural data are bright, and the yield of US bonds has risen sharply. The yield of 10-year US bonds is close to 2%, as high as 1.93%, and the yield of 2-year US bonds has exceeded 1.3%; The term premium of 2-10-year US bonds is basically the same, and US bonds are dominated by Xiong Ping; German bond yields turned positive for the first time, rising by 19bp, while Japanese + year bond yields rose slightly by 1bp.
Foreign exchange market: strong non-agricultural and strong GDP data promoted the market’s expectation of tightening monetary policy in the United States, but the marginal upward expectation of tightening in Europe led to a sharp decline in the US dollar index, with a weekly decline of 1.8% and finally closed at 95.46. Among them, the euro, sterling and Australian dollar all appreciated sharply against the US dollar.
Commodity market: in terms of precious metals, precious metals rose sharply during the Spring Festival and then fell. Affected by non-agricultural data, precious metals fell sharply on Friday. Last week, gold rose slightly, or 0.93%, and silver was basically flat. In terms of crude oil, due to the white hot state of the Russian Ukrainian incident and the cold wave in the eastern United States, the crude oil rose rapidly, breaking the $90 mark, and the crude oil of the United States increased by 5.87%. Global inflation rose, driving the continued upward trend of commodities, while LME copper continued to rise, closing up 3.87%.
Risk tip: inflation continued to rise and global monetary policy tightened rapidly
