Disclosure: the disclosure rate of performance express or performance forecast of all A-Shares is nearly 60%. As of January 31, 2022, a total of 2631 listed companies in a have disclosed performance forecast or performance express, accounting for 55.59% of all a shares. From the perspective of broad-based index, the gem index has the highest disclosure rate, reaching 72%, and the performance analysis is relatively representative; Among the constituent stocks of the CSI 300 index, only half disclose performance information; From the perspective of style, the disclosure rate of growth style is relatively high (57.09%). From the perspective of the industry, on the whole, the performance disclosure rates of the middle and upper reaches of raw materials, technology and some consumer sectors are relatively high, of which the disclosure rates of coal and consumer services are 82.86% and 81.48%, which are highly representative of the industry performance; In contrast, the performance disclosure rate of the financial real estate chain and the middle and downstream manufacturing sector is concentrated near 50%, of which the disclosure rate of machinery, construction, non bank finance, automobile and food and beverage is less than 50%, and the performance representation is relatively low, which needs to be further supported on the basis of the disclosed performance information.
The growth rate of cycle and growth style performance is relatively high, and the bottom of Q3 performance in 2021 is a high probability event. We take 2631 listed companies that have disclosed the performance forecast and express as the analysis sample: Overall, the cumulative and single quarter performance growth rates in Q4 in 2021 are 61.9% and 267.3% respectively, The main distribution range of its constituent stocks is (50%, 200%], accounting for 38.3% and 27.0% respectively. Although there may be some representative deviation in the conclusion due to the impact of the performance forecast disclosure rules, considering that the contradiction between supply and demand of the industrial chain has been greatly alleviated in the fourth quarter and the impact of dual control of energy consumption has weakened, Q3 in 2021 is the bottom of performance, which is still a high probability event. From the perspective of style, the performance growth rate of cycle and growth style is relatively high The growth rate of its Q4 cumulative / single quarter performance in 2021 was 258.5% and 207.4% / 31.4% and 42.8% respectively. From the perspective of industrial chain, even if some middle and upper reaches raw material sectors implemented the policy of ensuring supply and price stability in the fourth quarter, a large number of individual stocks in the basic chemical industry, non-ferrous metals and coal industry still achieved high performance growth. From the disclosure of the performance forecast, the performance growth rate of the coal industry in Q4 in 2021 is not lower but higher than that in Q3, which has enough toughness. In the midstream manufacturing industry, the single quarter performance growth rate of electronics, basic chemicals, power equipment, new energy and machinery in Q4 of 2021 was more than 100%, and further increased in varying degrees compared with Q3, which may mean that the cost pressure of the midstream manufacturing sector has been relieved to a certain extent with the appropriate decline of the prices of raw materials in the midstream and upstream, However, the mitigation is not comprehensive, which is reflected in the high proportion of stocks with performance growth rate less than 0. For the downstream consumer sector, the absolute value of performance growth is high due to the low base. However, it can not be ignored that there are still a large number of stocks whose annual performance growth has not even turned positive, and even the proportion of stocks with negative performance growth in the fourth quarter of 2021 has further increased. On the whole, the performance recovery of the consumer sector in 2021 is far from expected. In addition, it is worth mentioning that both non bank finance and banks have excellent performance in Q4 and the whole year, with 95.6% / 1359.4% and 21.4% / 20.0% respectively, showing strong performance stability (the high performance of non bank finance Q4 in a single quarter is mainly affected by the low base).
From the perspective of poor expectations: it is more difficult to "exceed expectations" in the high boom, and there may be "opportunities" beyond the consensus. From the perspective of performance forecast and analyst expectation, we calculate whether there is "expected difference" in actual performance. On the whole, although the performance growth rate of all A-Shares calculated by the current disclosure rate is high, the performance of most individual shares has not exceeded the market expectation, and the CSI 300 is the only mainstream broad-based index in which individual stocks higher than the market expectation account for more than 50%, of which the financial sector exceeds the expectation by 66%, The performance of 46.7% and 41.7% of individual stocks in regional banks and securities industries were even higher than the most optimistic expectations of the market. From the perspective of industrial chain, among the middle and upper reaches of raw materials, coal, basic chemical and petrochemical industries accounted for more than 50% of the market expectations, which verified that their performance toughness in the fourth quarter exceeded the market expectations to a certain extent. Corresponding to this is the performance differentiation of the boom track: taking new energy as an example, the stocks whose mid-range bearing of the sector is significantly higher than expected are concentrated in new energy power systems and electrical equipment (secondary industry), while nearly half of the stocks in power equipment (photovoltaic and wind power) are less than the minimum expected by analysts before the announcement.
The difficulty of "good becomes better" is increasing, Focus on underestimation and "difference". From the performance forecast of 2021, it is becoming more and more difficult for the prosperity of popular sectors to exceed expectations (in 2021, the proportion of stocks with Q3 power equipment performance exceeding expectations was as high as 57.14%, and the proportion of Q4 decreased to 46.7%) , the mid and upper reaches cycle sector represented by coal reflects the strength and toughness of performance, which is different from the sharp decline in performance in the past during the economic recession. Pay attention to the performance elasticity in the process of future demand recovery. In addition, the market generally underestimates the performance of the financial sector. Considering that the current valuation of the financial sector is still at a historical low, which implies a lot of concerns about asset quality, the stable performance may resonate with the expected repair of asset quality. The ability of the high boom track to further "exceed expectations" is slowing down, and the "surprises" beyond the consensus deserve more attention.
Risk warning: measurement error; Representative error.
