Double financing balance
As of January 28, the two financial balances of Shanghai Stock Exchange reported 913.915 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.809 billion yuan compared with the previous trading day; The two financial balances of Shenzhen Stock Exchange reported 799.295 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.653 billion yuan compared with the previous trading day; The two cities totaled 1713.210 billion yuan, a decrease of 30.462 billion yuan over the previous trading day.
Latest views
During the Spring Festival holiday, the overall performance of European and American stock markets was good. From January 31 to February 2 (Monday to Wednesday), European and American stock markets rebounded significantly as a whole. In the United States, the NASDAQ index, the S & P 500 index and the Dow Jones industrial average rose 4.70%, 3.55% and 2.60% respectively. On February 3 (Thursday), affected by factors such as the interest rate meeting of the European Central Bank and the lower than expected performance guidance of meta (formerly Facebook) in the United States, the global stock market corrected, and the NASDAQ index plunged – 3.74%, the largest decline since September 2020. But on the whole, the European and American markets generally warmed up this week. The Hong Kong stock market opened for only one and a half days this week (the morning of January 31 and the whole day of February 4), and the Hang Seng Index rose 4.34% during the week. By sector, Hang Seng technology and Hang Seng financial index rose 5.48% and 3.39% respectively. At the current node, the external negative factors before the festival have been significantly weakened, investors’ risk appetite will pick up significantly, and A-Shares are expected to usher in a restorative rebound, but the market space and rebound time are still limited.
Topic tracking
Today’s focus: wind power equipment, tourist hotels, pig breeding
1. Theme of wind power equipment: as one of the main forces to achieve the goal of “double carbon”, the wind power market has strong demand. According to the data of the national energy administration, the installed scale of offshore wind power in China has leapt to the first in the world in 2021. From the perspective of resource endowment, China has more than 18000 kilometers of coastline, rich in offshore wind energy resources, with a usable sea area of 3 million square kilometers, and is concentrated in energy load centers such as the Middle East and the south. Recently, Guangdong, Jiangsu and other places have proposed to build offshore wind power equipment and operation and maintenance bases to promote the parity of offshore wind power on the Internet. With the intensive introduction of relevant policies, the long-term growth certainty of the wind power industry is further enhanced. Suggestions for attention: Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) (002487), Hewang electric appliance (603063)
2. Theme of Tourist Hotels: on January 20, the State Council issued the “14th five year plan” for tourism development, which proposed to innovate and improve China’s tourism under the condition of normalization of epidemic prevention and control, timely launch inbound tourism promotion actions, issue inbound tourism development support policies, and take effective measures to promote the high-quality development of inbound tourism. The plan reflects the willingness to promote tourism openness and cooperation, and is expected to improve the supply and demand pattern of tourism. With the continuous release of national tourism and leisure demand after the epidemic, it is expected that there is a broad space for the growth of per capita tourism times and per capita tourism expenditure, which will promote the prosperity and development of the tourism market for a long time. Suggestions: Guilin Tourism Corporation Limited(000978) (000978), Tibet Tourism Co.Ltd(600749) (600749)
3. Pig breeding industry: from the performance forecast of 2021 disclosed by some head pig enterprises, some head companies have large performance losses. Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) it is estimated that the first loss of net profit in 2021 will be 3.5-4 billion yuan; Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) it is estimated that the performance loss in 2021 will be as high as 13-13.8 billion yuan; Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) there were also consecutive quarterly losses in the third and fourth quarters. Since June last year, the elimination of fertile sows has been started. With the expansion of general performance losses in the industry, it is expected to accelerate the elimination of fertile sows’ production capacity. It is expected to gradually usher in the inflection point of the pig cycle in the second half of this year, and the worst performance of pig breeding is expected to pass and usher in allocation opportunities. It is suggested to pay attention to: Pengdu Agriculture & Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(002505) (002505), Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) (002567).
Risk tips
The epidemic has not been effectively controlled, the macro economy has unexpectedly declined, the liquidity crunch has intensified, and the industrial policies are lower than expected.
