Market Review
From January 17 to January 28, 2022, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 4.54%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 5.81% and the gem index fell 6.75%. In terms of industries, Shenwan light industry manufacturing / textile and garment / commercial trade / food and beverage index rose or fell by – 7.43% / – 7.71% / – 2.83% / – 2.80% respectively, ranking 21 / 23 / 7 / 6 among the 28 Shenwan industry indexes compared with the CSI 300 index of – 3.98 / – 4.26 / + 0.62 / + 0.65pct respectively.
Weekly topic: focus on the development of single economy in the era of living alone
At present, there are 92 million adults living alone in China, accounting for 6.5% of China’s total population, and the proportion of one person households accounts for 25.4% of the total households, an increase of 11.4pct over 2011; The increasing number of single adults, the postponement of the age of first marriage and the record high divorce rate all mark the arrival of the era of living alone. There are two main reasons: on the one hand, the increase in the number of years of education delays the age of first marriage, leading to the “first marriage delay effect”, while the corresponding highly educated groups are more inclined to three view matching and unwilling to make do with it; On the other hand, the work pressure brought by entering the workplace not only occupies the time and energy required for partner matching, but also has high requirements for fit. We believe that the advent of the era of living alone will have a higher demand for social services / products, which will stimulate corresponding industries, including:
1) prefabricated dishes: during the epidemic period, more than 90% of catering enterprises are making efforts to sell takeout products, of which 91.6% sell semi-finished products and prepackaged food. Finally, the growth rate of prefabricated dishes will maintain 24.1% when the catering industry as a whole will decline (- 15%) in 2020. The single group is the main consumer group of takeout, which is expected to promote the development of prefabricated dishes in the b-end market by promoting the online takeout industry; In the process of one person eating, the single group will have higher requirements for the convenience and taste of food, which is similar to the needs of the target users of the C-end of prefabricated dishes. The single group is expected to stimulate the prefabricated vegetable market from both ends of B and C at the same time.
2) pet economy: with the growth of pet owners and the change of their potential attitude towards pets, the scale of China’s pet economy industry will be nearly 400 billion yuan in 2021, with a compound growth rate of 24.7% from 2015 to 2020. According to the survey, most people do not choose to live alone. 68% of the groups living alone like excitement and want to bid farewell to living alone. With the increase of per capita disposable income, they may choose to increase their consumption of pets to get spiritual sustenance.
3) Mini household appliances: the penetration rate of large household appliances (air conditioners, refrigerators and washing machines) in durable consumer goods has been saturated. With the single group pursuing high quality, high consumption and pleasing oneself becoming the main consumer group, the corresponding one-man / mini household appliances have developed. At the beginning of the design of mini household appliances, they were labeled as “one person for use, one person for food”. With the expansion of single groups, the sales and market share of small capacity household appliances are rising.
The beneficiary objects include Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) , Yantai China Pet Foods Co.Ltd(002891) , Petpal Pet Nutrition Technology Co.Ltd(300673) , Bear Electric Appliance Co.Ltd(002959) , etc.
Risk tips
The risk of macroeconomic growth falling short of expectations; Risk that the production capacity is less than expected; The business condition of the enterprise is lower than the expected risk; Risk of rising raw material prices; Food safety insurance; The competition pattern intensifies.
