Market review of transportation service sector this week
1) shenwanyi industry (31): this week (from January 24 to January 28), the cumulative growth of transportation and social service industries were – 0.61% and – 4.28% respectively, ranking 4th and 12th respectively; The CSI 300 index rose by – 4.51%.
2) Shenwan secondary industry (134): this week (from January 24 to January 28), the cumulative growth of tourism retail, airport, tourism and scenic spots, hotel catering was + 0.0%, – 0.7%, – 2.2%, – 4.1% respectively, ranking 9th, 17th, 23rd and 48th respectively.
Covid-19 epidemic tracking
Diagnosis of covid-19 pneumonia: 1) China: from January 22 to January 28, China reported a total of 180 local confirmed cases (499 last week), mainly in Henan Province (Anyang City), Tianjin, Beijing, Shanghai, Zhejiang Province (Hangzhou City), Heilongjiang (Mudanjiang City), Xinjiang province (Yili); As of 0:00 on January 30, 2022, there are 67 medium and high-risk areas in China, including 14 high-risk areas (Beijing 1, Tianjin 11, Zhejiang 1 and Henan 1) and 53 medium risk areas (Beijing 9, Tianjin 12, Hebei 1, Heilongjiang 11, Shanghai 1, Zhejiang 12, Henan 1, Yunnan 1 and Xinjiang 5). 2) Global: from January 22 to January 28, about 23.3 million new cases were diagnosed, with a month on month increase of + 4%; The number of deaths increased by 60830, a month on month increase of + 9%. 3) United States: from January 22 to January 28, about 3.86 million new cases were diagnosed, down 23% month on month; A total of 18018 deaths were added, an increase of 16% month on month. 4) UK: from January 22 to January 28, about 640000 new cases were diagnosed, a decrease of 1% month on month; A total of 1839 deaths were added, a decrease of 3% month on month.
Covid-19 vaccination: 1) China: as of January 28, China has reported about 2.99 billion doses of covid-19 virus vaccine. About 4.78 million doses of covid-19 vaccine were vaccinated every day from January 22 to January 28, an increase of 6% month on month. 2) Global: as of January 28, about 10 billion doses of covid-19 virus vaccine had been vaccinated worldwide, and 61% of the world’s population had received at least one dose of vaccine.
Airport & aviation: the number of civil aviation passengers 13 days before the Spring Festival transportation increased by 57% year-on-year
1) industry: according to the vertical and horizontal data of air travel, from January 24 to January 28, the daily average number of flights executed by Chinese and international routes was about 11101, a year-on-year decrease of 26.9% in 2019 and a month on week increase of 13.0%.
2) Spring Festival travel: as of the 13th day of Spring Festival travel (December 26), the country is expected to send a total of about 351 million passengers, with a year-on-year increase of + 47% in 21 years, a year-on-year increase of – 65% in 20 years and a year-on-year increase of – 65% in 19 years; Among them, civil aviation is expected to send a total of about 11.87 million passengers, a year-on-year increase of + 57% in 21 years, a year-on-year decrease of – 53% in 20 years and a year-on-year decrease of – 49% in 19 years.
3) aviation department: from January 24 to January 28, according to the data of flight standard, the average daily flight numbers of Air China, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, spring and autumn, Jixiang and Huaxia were 917, 1692, 1659, 497, 305 and 155 respectively, with an average of 9.8%, 16.5%, 19.0%, 9.5%, 13.8% and 2.1% respectively compared with the previous Sunday.
4) Airport: from January 24 to January 28, according to the flight control data, the average daily take-off and landing sorties of Shanghai Pudong, Shanghai Hongqiao, capital airport, Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) and Shenzhen Airport Co.Ltd(000089) were 392, 279, 262, 503 and 351 respectively, 29.3%, 13.3%, – 4.7%, 9.1% and 39.9% respectively.
Tax exemption: the intensity of tax exemption and discount on outlying islands decreased month on month; The tax-free sales volume in Korea in 21 years was 93.7 billion yuan
1) Hainan flight volume tracking: from January 22 to January 28, the average daily inbound and outbound flights of Sanya Phoenix Airport and Haikou Meilan International Airport were 399 and 493 respectively, an increase of 7% and 6% respectively compared with last week; In the same period, the average daily passenger volume of Haikou airport was (expected) 62626, an increase of 13.1% month on month.
2) tax free channel discount tracking: on Sunday, the tax-free channel discounts of direct mail, China free outlying islands and Haifa control outlying islands weakened month on month, and the tax-free discounts of China travel investment and China export service outlying islands were basically the same month on month.
3) according to the data of Korea duty free shop Association, the sales scale of Korean duty free shops in 2021 was about 17.8 trillion won (about 93.7 billion yuan), an increase of 15% year-on-year, equivalent to 71.7% in 2019 before the outbreak of covid-19. Among them, foreign consumers contributed 95.4% of sales (about 89.4 billion yuan).
Hotel announcement review
Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) in 2021, the pre profit was 45 million yuan to 65 million yuan, reversing the loss year-on-year; The net profit deducted from non parent company is 8 million yuan to 12 million yuan, which will turn losses into profits year-on-year.
Investment advice
1) recommended Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) : the current valuation has the configuration cost performance, and the marginal travel demand in China is upward. Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) has signed a contract with LV, and the company is expected to usher in the double repair of performance and valuation.
2) three major airlines are recommended: domestic covid-19 oral specific drugs have been approved for listing, the dawn of international flight recovery may be at present, and the company will show great profit flexibility in the recovery stage.
3) recommendation Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) : China’s transport capacity accounts for a large proportion, and its performance is the first to recover. Before the opening of the door, its profit performance is more stable and has high long-term growth. Intercontinental routes are expected to become a new growth point.
4) it is suggested to pay attention to Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) : the scale advantage is obvious, the management is significantly improved, and the overseas recovery is accelerated, which is expected to usher in a period of rapid growth.
5) recommendation Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) : leading industry of chain hotel group β， The light management mode opens up the incremental space of the sinking market. Under the three-year goal of 10000 stores, the number of hotels opened in 21-23 years is expected to reach 30%.
6) recommendation China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) : under the comprehensive layout of outlying islands + online + Airport + city, the company still has great growth space, and the expansion of duty-free shops on outlying islands in 22 years is expected to bring new catalysis.
Risk tips
The recovery of the epidemic was less than expected, the demand of the industry was less than expected, the oil price and exchange rate fluctuated sharply, the tax-free policy changed, and the competition in the tax-free industry intensified.
