Reverse cycle and cross cycle are two interrelated but different policy systems. The counter cyclical policy system has a lot of ready-made experience outside China, relatively strong policy stimulus and rapid effect of steady growth. Cross cycle pays more attention to medium and long-term issues to reduce the dependence on short-term stimulus policies; However, there is little ready-made experience outside China and policy coordination is difficult.
From a short-term perspective, we must see that China's economic development is facing triple pressures of demand contraction, supply shock and weakening expectation, so we pay more attention to counter cyclical policies; From the medium and long-term perspective, cross cycle policy is the only way. The reason is that China's production function is changing, the factor conditions, combination mode and allocation efficiency of economic development are changing, and the hard constraints faced are obviously increasing.
Keeping the proportion of manufacturing industry basically stable is the key to understand the industrial policy during the 14th Five Year Plan period. The key directions include:
1) cultivation of emerging industries: strive to increase varieties, improve quality and create brands, promote the development of new energy vehicles, ultra-high definition video and other industries, and support the innovation of wearable devices, consumer UAVs, intelligent services Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , virtual reality and other products
2) breakthroughs in key technologies: increase efforts to tackle key core technologies and products, focus on key areas such as integrated circuits, key software, key new materials, major short board equipment and industrial Internet, and enhance the support capacity of key areas, key links and key products
3) transformation of traditional industries: implement the carbon peak action and green manufacturing project in the industrial field, promote the transformation of energy conservation and carbon reduction in iron and steel, nonferrous metals, building materials, petrochemical and other industries, and break through a number of green manufacturing technologies and equipment
Risk tip: the spread of the epidemic exceeded expectations, the policy was less than expected, the Sino US relations deteriorated again, and the overseas monetary policy changed
