Profit of industrial enterprises: the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises was high throughout the year, but the marginal growth rate slowed down significantly, and the growth rate returned to normal as a whole. Under the high PPI and the great operating pressure of enterprises in downstream industries, the year-on-year growth rate of profits of industrial enterprises decreased significantly, but the overall profit growth rate of the whole year remained high. In December, the profit of industrial enterprises increased by 4.2% year-on-year, the cumulative year-on-year growth of the whole year exceeded 30%, and the quarterly growth rate was high before and low after. Taking into account the high decline of commodity prices, the gradual recovery of global supply chain and logistics transportation, the continuous force of the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices and the high base last year, the profit growth of industrial enterprises is expected to slow down. It is not ruled out that the year-on-year growth rate of individual months this year will turn negative, and the overall industrial profits will return to normal.
PMI: some manufacturing industries have entered the seasonal off-season, the PMI of manufacturing industry has dropped slightly, and the epidemic continues to drag down the PMI of non manufacturing industry. With some manufacturing industries entering the off-season of traditional production during the Spring Festival, superimposed on the slowdown of market demand, especially external demand, the manufacturing PMI fell to 50.1 in January. At the same time, affected by the multi-point spread of the epidemic and relevant epidemic prevention measures, the PMI of non manufacturing industries fell to a five-month low of 51.1. The weak PMI indicates that the effect of the policy easing measures taken by the government has not been transmitted to the real economy. The epidemic and real estate are still the main risks facing the economy. The downward pressure on the economy is still large in the first half of the year. It is expected that the government will continue to relax the structural policies, especially increase fiscal expenditure.
Capital analysis: the central bank invested a net 600 billion yuan in the open market this week, and the capital was generally stable in the last week before the festival; After the festival, a large number of reverse repos expire, and the possibility of significant fluctuations in capital is limited. This week, the central bank conducted a total of 1100 billion yuan of reverse repo in the open market. This week, a total of 500 billion yuan of reverse repo expired in the open market of the central bank, and a net investment of 600 billion yuan in the open market of the central bank this week. In the last week before the festival, the overall capital level was stable. After the central bank's interest rate cut and reduction continued as MLF, the overall capital level was loose, and the impact of cash withdrawal in the new year on the capital level was still weaker than that before the outbreak. In this context, from this point of view, although there are a large number of reverse repo maturities after the festival, there is expected to be room for funds to cope with the impact.
Interest rate debt: external liquidity constraints and the effect of credit easing are expected to become the main constraints of the bond market in the second quarter. The Federal Reserve is about to open the "continuous rapid interest rate increase + table contraction". Whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in March is about to reveal the answer, and external constraints are expected to come in the second quarter. At the same time, in the second quarter, the effect of credit easing is expected to gradually appear. In addition, if the Fed raises interest rates in March, it will gradually restrict China's liquidity easing trend. Therefore, there may be adjustment risk in the bond market in the second quarter.
Convertible bonds: the equity market fell sharply, and the convertible bond market was relatively resistant to decline. We paid attention to the medium price bonds with high debt bottom, the wrong killing opportunities of high-quality companies, "steady growth" and "dilemma reversal" themes. This week is the last trading week before the Spring Festival. The equity market fell sharply, and the convertible bond market was relatively resistant to decline. More than 80% of the convertible bonds recorded a decline. China's equity market was trampled in the last week before the Spring Festival. In the short term, the equity market may continue to be in the rebalancing stage, focusing on the medium price bonds with high debt bottom, the wrong killing opportunities of high-quality companies, "steady growth" and "dilemma reversal" themes.
