January and February are the fiscal data vacuum period. How to interpret the fiscal cross cycle adjustment in 2022, and the operation of fiscal revenue and expenditure in 2021 may give us some clues.
The accumulated fiscal balance in 2021 will reach 3.5 trillion, and the fiscal expenditure in 2022 can open up some space.
In 2021, the surplus fund is 3.5 trillion yuan. In addition to general taxes and land transfer fees, there is an "additional" income supplement in 2022, which is the surplus fund in 2021.
We further calculated and found that under the support of 3.5 trillion fiscal surplus, the growth rate of fiscal expenditure in 2022 can logically reach 8%, much higher than the 0.3% growth rate of expenditure in 2021. In other words, the fiscal expenditure space in 2022 can be imagined.
The main reason for the large scale of fiscal surplus in 2021 is the over revenue and expenditure reduction.
The economic recovery in 2021 is slightly higher than expected, and the attitude of fiscal expenditure is neutral and tight. In 2021, the broad fiscal revenue completed 102.9% of the budget (the average value in recent six years was 104%), and the broad fiscal expenditure only completed 94% of the budget (the average value in recent six years was 102%), which was significantly lower than the historical level.
The financial expenditure in December of 21 is different from that in the past, and we pay attention to the disturbance of future land transfer fees to the rhythm of financial operation.
Generally speaking, the progress of fiscal expenditure in December is significantly higher than that in other months, that is, there is a phenomenon of "catching up with the progress" of fiscal expenditure at the end of the year. The progress of early expenditure in 2021 is slow, and the market generally expects that the expenditure will be significantly large in December, but in fact, the progress of generalized expenditure is only 14.4%, which is lower than the historical average and significantly lower than the market expectation.
The rhythm of fiscal expenditure in 2021 is different from that in the past, and the reasons behind it are not difficult to understand: the changes of real estate and land transfer fees ultimately affect the rhythm of fiscal expenditure in a broad sense. We will keep the real estate and land transfer fees in the future
Attention.
Risk tip: China's policy regulation exceeded expectations; The epidemic development exceeded expectations.
